Related papers: Earthquake recurrence as a record breaking process
Earthquakes are complex physical processes driven by the stick-slip motion of a sliding fault. After the main quake, a series of aftershocks typically follows. These are loosely defined as events that follow a given event and occur within…
We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and…
The phenomenon of aftershocks is studied in view of science of complexity. In particular, three different concepts are examined: (i) the complex-network representation of seismicity, (ii) the event-event correlations, and (iii) the effects…
We show that the distribution of waiting times between earthquakes occurring in California obeys a simple unified scaling law valid from tens of seconds to tens of years, see Eq. (1) and Fig. 4. The short time clustering, commonly referred…
It was conjectured for a long time that the tectonic plates are in a self-organized state of criticality and that the Gutenberg-Richter law is a manifestation of that. It was recently shown that for a system near criticality, the inequality…
The statistical properties of the seismic time series data in southern California are studies. In particular, the calm time intervals, which are the time intervals between successive significant earthquakes above the fixed threshold value…
In their paper (Europhys. Lett., 71 (2005) 1036), Carbone, Sorriso-Valvo, Harabaglia and Guerra showed that "unified scaling law" for conventional waiting times of earthquakes claimed by Bak et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett., 88 (2002) 178501) is…
``Remote triggering" refers to the inducement of earthquakes by weak perturbations that emanate from far away sources, typically intense earthquakes that happen at much larger distances than their nearby aftershocks, sometimes even around…
Contrary to common belief, as the time since the last earthquake in a certain region increases, the risk of occurrence of another earthquake diminishes. As a consequence, the expected waiting time to the next event increases with the…
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor…
The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…
We analyze 21 aftershock sequences of California to test for evidence of space-time diffusion. Aftershock diffusion may result from stress diffusion and is also predicted by any mechanism of stress weakening. Here, we test an alternative…
Scaling analysis of seismicity in the space-time-magnitude domain very often starts from the relation N(m,L)=a(L)*10**(-bm)*L**c for the rate of seismic events of magnitude M>m in an area of size L. There is some evidence in favor of…
After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…
This paper presents a new approach for analysing structural properties of time series from complex systems. Starting from the concept of recurrences in phase space, the recurrence matrix of a time series is interpreted as the adjacency…
Discovery of a new law for three dimensional spatial distance between the foci of successive earthquakes is reported. Analyzing the seismic data taken between 1984 and 2001 in southern California, it is found that the cumulative…
Around 90% of the earthquakes in the world occur at the circum-Pacific belt referred to as the Pacific Ring of Fire exposing the countries in this region to high risk of earthquake hazards. We model fluctuations of the different seismic…
The long-term erosion of steep landscapes is punctuated by dramatic erosional events that can remove significant amount of sediments within a time-scale shorter than a seismic cycle. However, the role of such large erosional events on…