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Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-07-05 Shanyin Tong , Eric Vanden-Eijnden , Georg Stadler

Models of faults incorporating slip rate- and state-dependent friction have reproduced phenomena from spontaneous slow, aseismic slip to earthquake-generating dynamic rupture. Numerical explorations of model parameter space regularly show…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-26 Robert C. Viesca , Dmitry I. Garagash

Traditional models of slow slip events (SSEs) often oversimplify fault geometry, yet imaging studies show that real subduction faults are segmented and complex. We investigate how fault interactions influence slip behavior using 3D…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-02-19 J. Cheng , H. S. Bhat , M. Almakari , B. Lecampion , P. Dubernet

We study a one-dimensional model of a dislocation pileup driven by an external stress and interacting with random quenched disorder, focusing on predictability of the plastic deformation process. Upon quasistatically ramping up the…

Materials Science · Physics 2020-12-21 Mika Sarvilahti , Audun Skaugen , Lasse Laurson

The statistics of recurrence times in broad areas have been reported to obey universal scaling laws, both for single homogeneous regions (Corral, 2003) and when averaged over multiple regions (Bak et al.,2002). These unified scaling laws…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-12-04 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-04-17 Brendan J. Meade

A modified Carlson-Langer model for earthquakes is proposed, which includes nonlinear visco-elasticity. Several aftershocks are generated after the main shock owing to the damping of the additional visco-elastic force. Both the…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-11 Hidetsugu Sakaguchi , Kazuki Okamura

Nearly all aspects of earthquake rupture are controlled by the friction along the fault that progressively increases with tectonic forcing, but in general cannot be directly measured. We show that fault friction can be determined at any…

Potential energy stored during the inter-seismic period by tectonic loading around faults is released during earthquakes as radiated energy, heat and fracture energy. The latter is of first importance since it controls the nucleation,…

The Multifractal Stress-Activated (MSA) model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off $M_0$, the exponent $p$ of the Omori law…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-06-13 G. Ouillon , E. Ribeiro , D. Sornette

After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Stefano Lise , Maya Paczuski , Attilio Stella

Friction plays a fundamental role in many natural processes, including earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Earthquakes occur when highly compressed fault surfaces accumulate large enough shear stresses, causing the faults to…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-02-16 Mary Agajanian , Nadia Lapusta , Anna Pandolfi , Michael Ortiz

It has been long stated that there are profound analogies between fracture experiments and earthquakes; however, few works attempt a complete characterization of the parallelisms between these so separate phenomena. We study the Acoustic…

We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-11-11 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

The deactivation coefficient has been introduced for the source that cools down after the mainshock of the earthquake. The deactivation coefficient satisfies two conditions. First, it can be computed from observed aftershock frequency data…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-24 A. V. Guglielmi

After the main shock of an earthquake, a stream of aftershocks that does not subside for a long time is usually observed. Fusakichi Omori found that the frequency of aftershocks decreases hyperbolically with time. It has recently been…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-05-31 Anatol Guglielmi , Alexey Zavyalov , Oleg Zotov , Boris Klain

Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-30 Daniel S. Fisher , Karin Dahmen , Sharad Ramanathan , Yehuda Ben-Zion

In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Robert Shcherbakov , Gleb Yakovlev , Donald L. Turcotte , John B. Rundle

Crustal deformation due to the 2016 earthquake sequence in Kumamoto, Japan, that culminated in a preceding earthquake of magnitude M6.5 and a subsequent M7.3 earthquake 28 hours later, caused stress perturbation on and around the causative…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-12-08 K. Z. Nanjo , J. Izutsu , Y. Orihara , M. Kamogawa

In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability $p$ . In both topologies, we have studied…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2014-05-05 Douglas S. R. Ferreira , Andrés R. R. Papa , Ronaldo Menezes