Related papers: Endogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises
Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the…
The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a…
The external galactic key factor for developing of massive geochronological boundaries, as well as mass extinctions (ME) is proved based on chronological relationships of the impulses of globally short processes. External galactic key…
Why life is complex and --most importantly-- what is the origin of the over abundance of complexity in nature? This is a fundamental scientific question which, paraphrasing the late Per Bak, "is screaming to be answered but seldom is even…
A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal…
This chapter reviews measures of emergence, self-organization, complexity, homeostasis, and autopoiesis based on information theory. These measures are derived from proposed axioms and tested in two case studies: random Boolean networks and…
Many complex systems exhibit extreme events far more often than expected for a normal distribution. This work examines how self-similar bursts of activity across several orders of magnitude can emerge from first principles in systems that…
It is usually believed that Darwin's theory leads to a smooth gradual evolution, so that mass extinctions must be caused by external shocks. However, it has recently been argued that mass extinctions arise from the intrinsic dynamics of…
The question we address here is of whether phenomena of collective bankruptcies are related to self-organized criticality. In order to answer it we propose a simple model of banking networks based on the random directed percolation. We…
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…
Recently, large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of the self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that…
In these notes we review emergent phenomena in complex systems, emphasizing ways to identify potential underlying universal mechanisms that generates complexity. The discussion is centered around the emergence of collective behavior in…
Recent studies of cluster distribution in various ecosystems revealed Pareto statistics for the size of spatial colonies. These results were supported by cellular automata simulations that yield robust criticality for endogenous pattern…
What features characterise complex system dynamics? Power laws and scale invariance of fluctuations are often taken as the hallmarks of complexity, drawing on analogies with equilibrium critical phenomena[1-3]. Here we argue that slow,…
Complex systems can be described at myriad different scales, and their causal workings often have multiscale structure (e.g., a computer can be described at the microscale of its hardware circuitry, the mesoscale of its machine code, and…
Social network research has begun to take advantage of fine-grained communications regarding coordination, decision-making, and knowledge sharing. These studies, however, have not generally analyzed how external events are associated with a…
Short-term survival and an exuberant plunge into building our future are generating a new kind of unintended consequence -- hidden fragility. This is a direct effect of the sophistication and structural complexity of the socio-technical…
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), based on rational expectations and market equilibrium, is the dominant perspective for modelling economic markets. However, the most notable critique of the EMH is the inability to model periods of…
Financial crises are known as crashes that result in a sudden loss of value of financial assets in large part and they continue to occur from time to time surprisingly. In order to discover features of the financial network, the pairwise…
Fluctuations are inherent to biological systems, arising from the stochastic nature of molecular interactions, and influence various aspects of system behavior, stability, and robustness. These fluctuations can be categorized as intrinsic,…