Related papers: Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly …
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…
There are different kinds of intensity measures to characterize the main properties of the earthquake records. This paper proposes a simulation-based approach to compute correlation coefficients of motion duration and intensity measures of…
Unfortunately, working scientists sometimes reflexively continue to use "buzz phrases" grounded in once prevalent paradigms that have been subsequently refuted. This can impede both earthquake research and hazard mitigation. Well-worn…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the…
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…
We propose a method to search for signs of causal structure in spatiotemporal data making minimal a priori assumptions about the underlying dynamics. To this end, we generalize the elementary concept of recurrence for a point process in…
This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a defined circle of arbitrary radius surrounding a point of…
According to the Omori-Utsu law, the rate of aftershocks after a mainshock decays as a power law with an exponent close to 1. This well-established law was intensively used in the past to study and model the statistical properties of…
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…
We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…
Being able to forcast extreme volatility is a central issue in financial risk management. We present a large volatility predicting method based on the distribution of recurrence intervals between volatilities exceeding a certain threshold…
The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal…
The two-fractal overlap model of earthquake shows that the contact area distribution of two fractal surfaces follows power law decay in many cases and this agrees with the Guttenberg-Richter power law. Here, we attempt to predict the large…
By analyzing the seismicity in natural time and studying the evolution of the fluctuations of the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal for various scales of different length i (number of events), we can identify the approach of…
The average lifetime ($\tau(H)$) it takes for a randomly started trajectory to land in a small region ($H$) on a chaotic attractor is studied. $\tau(H)$ is an important issue for controlling chaos. We point out that if the region $H$ is…
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS < MT in the area, together with the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…
The aftershocks of the Tohoku earthquake are analyzed in light of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks. The theory is based on the concept of an earthquake source as a dynamic system, the state of which is described by a deactivation…
The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…
The acoustic emission activity associated with recent rock fracture experiments under different conditions has indicated that some features of event-event triggering are independent of the details of the experiment and the materials used…