Related papers: Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly …
The decay pattern of aftershocks in the so-called 'coherent-noise' models [M. E. J. Newman and K. Sneppen, Phys. Rev. E54, 6226 (1996)] is studied in detail. Analytical and numerical results show that the probability to find a large event…
One of the main interests in seismology is the formulation of models able to describe the clustering in time occurrence of earthquakes. Analysis of the Southern California Catalog shows magnitude clustering in correspondence to temporal…
The interevent time distribution characterizes the temporal occurrence in seismic catalogs. Universal scaling properties of this distribution have been evidenced for entire catalogs and seismic sequences. Recently, these universal features…
The role of the moon in triggering earthquakes has been studied since the early 1900s. Theory states that as land tides swept by the moon cross fault lines, stress in the Earth's plates intensifies, increasing the likelihood of small…
I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…
This paper is devoted to the study of the interaction between two distinct forms of non-stationary processes, which we will refer to as non-stationarity of first and second kind. The non-stationarity of first kind is caused by…
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered…
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
Mainshocks are often followed by increased earthquake activity (aftershocks). According to the Omori-Utsu law, the rate of aftershocks decays as a power law over time. While aftershocks typically occur in the vicinity of the mainshock,…
We have numerically investigated statistical properties of the so-called interoccurrence time or the waiting time, i.e., the time interval between successive earthquakes, based on the two-dimensional (2-D) spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff)…
Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…
Fundamentally related to the UV divergence problem in Physics, conventional wisdom in seismology is that the smallest earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate the triggering of major earthquakes, making the…
Earthquakes are a complex spatiotemporal phenomenon, the underlying mechanism for which is still not fully understood despite decades of research and analysis. We propose and develop a network approach to earthquake events. In this network,…
Monitoring stress recovery and accumulation associated with megaquakes helps to assess their recurrence. Previous studies proposed a high likelihood of imminent recurrence for the 2011 Tohoku and the 17th-century Hokkaido megaquakes…
The time dependence of the parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) magnitude distribution is computed for foreshock sequences of earthquakes, correlated with the main shock, by using the geometric-growth model of earthquake focus, the…
The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional error diagram (n,tau), where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is the normalized measure of space-time alarm. The most interesting…
Here we focus on a basic statistical measure of earthquake catalogs that has not been studied before, the asymmetry of interevent time series (e.g., reflecting the tendency to have more aftershocks than spontaneous earthquakes). We define…
Characteristic versus critical features of earthquakes are studied on the basis of the Olami-Feder-Christensen model. It is found that the local recurrence-time distribution exhibits a sharp $\delta$-function-like peak corresponding to…
A measure of the correlation between two earthquakes is used to link events to their aftershocks, generating a growing network structure. In this framework one can quantify whether an aftershock is close or far, from main shocks of all…