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We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-15 Riccardo Consonni , Luca Magri

Reactive anomaly detection methods, which are commonly deployed to identify anomalies after they occur based on observed deviations, often fall short in applications that demand timely intervention, such as industrial monitoring, finance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Luis Olmos , Rashida Hasan

Users form information trails as they browse the web, checkin with a geolocation, rate items, or consume media. A common problem is to predict what a user might do next for the purposes of guidance, recommendation, or prefetching.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-04-21 Tao Wu , David Gleich

This study presents a pilot investigation into a novel method for reconstructing real-time ground motion during small magnitude earthquakes (M < 4.5), removing the need for computationally expensive source characterization and simulation…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-11-06 Youngkyu Kim , Qingkai Kong , Youngsoo Choi , Arben Pitarka , Byounghyun Yoo

Radon monitoring has recently gained extensive attention among seismologists. It is now widely reported as a precursssory signal prior to occurrence of a seismic event. The enhanced estimation of radon in soil gas is basically attributed to…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-06-28 R. Biswas

Autoregressive language models accumulate errors due to their fixed, irrevocable left-to-right token generation. To address this, we propose a new sampling method called Resample-Previous-Tokens (RPT). RPT mitigates error accumulation by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Itai Gat , Neta Shaul , Uriel Singer , Yaron Lipman

Category-level object pose estimation aims to predict the 6D pose as well as the 3D metric size of arbitrary objects from a known set of categories. Recent methods harness shape prior adaptation to map the observed point cloud into the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Ruida Zhang , Yan Di , Zhiqiang Lou , Fabian Manhardt , Federico Tombari , Xiangyang Ji

The measurement data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system installed in distribution network can reflect the operational state of the network effectively. In this paper, a random matrix theory (RMT)…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-12 Xin Shi , Robert Qiu , Xing He , Zenan Ling , Haosen Yang , Lei Chu

This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-04-20 Oleg Elshin , Andrew A. Tronin

Supply chains' increasing globalization and complexity have recently produced unpredictable disruptions, ripple effects, and cascading resulting failures. Proposed practices for managing these concerns include the advanced field of forward…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-11-27 Madison Smith , Michael Gaiewski , Sam Dulin , Laurel Williams , Jeffrey Keisler , Andrew Jin , Igor Linkov

Geoscience and seismology have utilized the most advanced technologies and equipment to monitor seismic events globally from the past few decades. With the enormous amount of data, modern GPU-powered deep learning presents a promising…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-09-14 Bo Feng , Geoffrey C. Fox

Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-11-07 Leila Mizrahi , Dario Jozinović

The paper describes a theoretical model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected prior to the earthquake, a scheme of the earthquake prediction methodology, the possible methods, which are capable of simultaneous…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-04-26 Manana Kachakhidze , Nino Kachakhidze-Murphy

The aim of survival analysis in healthcare is to estimate the probability of occurrence of an event, such as a patient's death in an intensive care unit (ICU). Recent developments in deep neural networks (DNNs) for survival analysis show…

We present a method for locating the seismic event epicenters without assuming an Earth model of the seismic velocity structure, based on the linear relationship between $\log R$ and $\log t$ (where $R$ is the radius of spherical P wave…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-08-23 Rong Qiang Wei

We show that it is possible to capture the oscillatory ground motion induced by the Tohoku-Oki event for periods ranging from 3 to 100s using Precise Point Positioning (PPP). We find that the ground motions of the sedimentary basins of…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-22 P. Psimoulis , N. Houlie , M. Meindl , M. Rothacher

Stemming from physics and later applied to other fields such as ecology, the theory of critical transitions suggests that some regime shifts are preceded by statistical early warning signals. Reddit's r/place experiment, a large-scale…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-03-23 Guillaume Falmagne , Anna B. Stephenson , Simon A. Levin

In areas with limited station coverage, earthquake depth constraints are much less accurate than their latitude and longitude. Traditional travel-time-based location methods struggle to constrain depths due to imperfect station distribution…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-01-13 Wenda Li , Miao Zhang

We present an automated system called NEORANGER that regularly computes asteroid-Earth impact probabilities for objects on the Minor Planet Center's (MPC) Near-Earth-Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) and sends out alerts of imminent…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-12 Otto Solin , Mikael Granvik

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Michele De Vita , Julian Wiederer , Vasileios Belagiannis
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