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This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-21 Daniel W. Chambers , Jenny A. Baglivo , John E. Ebel , Alan L. Kafka

Machine learning algorithms have opened a breach in the fortress of the prediction of high-dimensional chaotic systems. Their ability to find hidden correlations in data can be exploited to perform model-free forecasting of spatiotemporal…

Optics · Physics 2022-06-08 S. Coulibaly , F. Bessin , M. G. Clerc , A. Mussot

Real time, accurate passive seismic event detection is a critical safety measure across a range of monitoring applications from reservoir stability to carbon storage to volcanic tremor detection. The most common detection procedure remains…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-12-08 Claire Birnie , Fredrik Hansteen

Precise real time estimates of earthquake magnitude and location are essential for early warning and rapid response. While recently multiple deep learning approaches for fast assessment of earthquakes have been proposed, they usually rely…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-04-15 Jannes Münchmeyer , Dino Bindi , Ulf Leser , Frederik Tilmann

We propose a novel seismic wave representation model, namely PRIME-DP (Pre-trained Integrated Model for Earthquake Data Processing), specifically designed for processing seismic waveforms. Most existing models are designed to solve a…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-08-28 Ziye Yu , Yuqi Cai , Weitao Wang , Yanru An , Lu Li , Yueyang Xia , Yunpeng Zhang

Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-09-24 Chen Hongran , Qin Siqing , Xue Lei , Yang Baicun , Zhang Ke

Earthquakes are among the most immediate and deadly natural disasters that humans face. Accurately forecasting the extent of earthquake damage and assessing potential risks can be instrumental in saving numerous lives. In this study, we…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Koyu Mizutani , Haruki Mitarai , Kakeru Miyazaki , Soichiro Kumano , Toshihiko Yamasaki

Earthquake early warning systems are required to report earthquake locations and magnitudes as quickly as possible before the damaging S wave arrival to mitigate seismic hazards. Deep learning techniques provide potential for extracting…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-02-16 Xiong Zhang , Miao Zhang , Xiao Tian

A measure of the correlation between two earthquakes is used to link events to their aftershocks, generating a growing network structure. In this framework one can quantify whether an aftershock is close or far, from main shocks of all…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 Marco Baiesi

A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be preceded by a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-07-05 G. V. Ryabinin , Yu. S. Polyakov , V. A. Gavrilov , S. F. Timashev

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-05-21 Alim Igilik

Although earthquake prediction is a big challenge in the world, some simple observational tools can capture many physical signals and demonstrate that an earthquake (EQ) may be forthcoming in short period. Many researchers have studied the…

Earthquake forecasting and prediction have long and in some cases sordid histories but recent work has rekindled interest based on advances in early warning, hazard assessment for induced seismicity and successful prediction of laboratory…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-10-13 Laura Laurenti , Elisa Tinti , Fabio Galasso , Luca Franco , Chris Marone

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-05-18 T. R. Krishna Mohan , P. G. Revathi

Identifying systematic patterns in seismicity that precede large earthquakes remains a central challenge in statistical seismology. In this work, we present a methodological framework for detecting spatiotemporal anomalies in seismicity…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-02-16 Jonas Köhler , Wei Li , Johannes Faber , Georg Rümpker , Nishtha Srivastava

As the society becomes more dependent on the presence of electricity, the resilience of the power systems gains more importance. This paper develops a decision support method for distribution system operators to restore electricity after an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-12 Onur Yigit Arpali , Ugur Can Yilmaz , Ebru Aydin Gol , Burcu Guldur Erkal , Murat Gol

On October 14th, 2016, the station of Tofino (British Columbia, Canada) issued the first ever real-time tsunami alert triggered by a coastal High-Frequency Radar system, based on the identification of abnormal surface current patterns. The…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-03-17 Baptiste Domps , Julien Marmain , Charles-Antoine Guérin

We address the estimation of seismic wavefields by means of Multidimensional Deconvolution (MDD) for various redatuming applications. While offering more accuracy than conventional correlation-based redatuming methods, MDD faces challenges…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-03 Daria Sushnikova , Matteo Ravasi , David Keyes

Low-frequency earthquakes are a particular class of slow earthquakes that provide a unique source of information on the mechanical properties of a subduction zone during the preparation of large earthquakes. Despite increasing detection of…

Small magnitude earthquakes are the most abundant but the most difficult to locate robustly and well due to their low amplitudes and high frequencies usually obscured by heterogeneous noise sources. They highlight crucial information about…