Related papers: Do medium range ensemble forecasts give useful pre…

Accurate time series forecasting is critical for a wide range of problems with temporal data. Ensemble modeling is a well-established technique for leveraging multiple predictive models to increase accuracy and robustness, as the…

Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM…

Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…

Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting…

The space weather community has begun to use frontier methods such as data assimilation, machine learning, and ensemble modeling to advance current operational forecasting efforts. This was highlighted by a multi-disciplinary session at the…

Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some…

Standard weather forecast evaluations focus on the forecaster's perspective and on a statistical assessment comparing forecasts and observations. In practice, however, forecasts are used to make decisions, so it seems natural to take the…

Intuitively, one would expect a more skillful forecast if predicting weather averaged over one week instead of the weather averaged over one day, and similarly for different spatial averaging areas. However, there are few systematic studies…

This report first provides a brief overview of a number of supervised learning algorithms for regression tasks. Among those are neural networks, regression trees, and the recently introduced Nexting. Nexting has been presented in the…

Fields like public health, public policy, and social science often want to quantify the degree of dependence between variables whose relationships take on unknown functional forms. Typically, in fact, researchers in these fields are…

Prediction intervals are a machine- and human-interpretable way to represent predictive uncertainty in a regression analysis. In this paper, we present a method for generating prediction intervals along with point estimates from an ensemble…

In the context of an increasing popularity of data-driven models to represent dynamical systems, many machine learning-based implementations of the Koopman operator have recently been proposed. However, the vast majority of those works are…

Meteorological forecasting provides reliable prediction about the future weather within a given interval of time. Meteorological forecasting can be viewed as a form of hybrid diagnostic reasoning and can be mapped onto an integrated…

Complex systems are typically represented by large ensembles of observations. Correlation matrices provide an efficient formal framework to extract information from such multivariate ensembles and identify in a quantifiable way patterns of…

A well known problem with EOP prediction is that a prediction strategy proved to be the best for some testing period and prediction length may not remain as such for other period of time. In this paper we consider possible strategies to…

Contemporary weather forecasts are typically based on ensemble prediction systems, which consist of multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models that vary with respect to in the initial conditions and/or the the parameterization of…

Recently, deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate…

Short Term Load forecasting in this paper uses input data dependent on parameters such as load for current hour and previous two hours, temperature for current hour and previous two hours, wind for current hour and previous two hours, cloud…

Decision-makers consult multiple forecasts to account for uncertainties when forming judgments about future events. While prior works have compared unaggregated and highly-aggregated designs for displaying multiple forecasts (e.g., Multiple…