English

Deep Ensembles to Improve Uncertainty Quantification of Statistical Downscaling Models under Climate Change Conditions

Machine Learning 2023-05-03 v1 Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Abstract

Recently, deep learning has emerged as a promising tool for statistical downscaling, the set of methods for generating high-resolution climate fields from coarse low-resolution variables. Nevertheless, their ability to generalize to climate change conditions remains questionable, mainly due to the stationarity assumption. We propose deep ensembles as a simple method to improve the uncertainty quantification of statistical downscaling models. By better capturing uncertainty, statistical downscaling models allow for superior planning against extreme weather events, a source of various negative social and economic impacts. Since no observational future data exists, we rely on a pseudo reality experiment to assess the suitability of deep ensembles for quantifying the uncertainty of climate change projections. Deep ensembles allow for a better risk assessment, highly demanded by sectoral applications to tackle climate change.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2305.00975,
  title  = {Deep Ensembles to Improve Uncertainty Quantification of Statistical Downscaling Models under Climate Change Conditions},
  author = {Jose González-Abad and Jorge Baño-Medina},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.00975},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

Accepted at the ICLR 2023 Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning Workshop