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Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-09 Georg Hofmann

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

The basic idea of importance sampling is to use independent samples from a proposal measure in order to approximate expectations with respect to a target measure. It is key to understand how many samples are required in order to guarantee…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-17 S. Agapiou , O. Papaspiliopoulos , D. Sanz-Alonso , A. M. Stuart

The numerical simulation of dynamical phenomena in interacting quantum systems is a notoriously hard problem. Although a number of promising numerical methods exist, they often have limited applicability due to the growth of entanglement or…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-09-08 Stefano De Nicola

We discuss importance sampling schemes for the estimation of finite time exit probabilities of small noise diffusions that involve escape from an equilibrium. A factor that complicates the analysis is that rest points are included in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-10 Paul Dupuis , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos , Xiang Zhou

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…

We consider the problem of estimating an expected outcome from a stochastic simulation model. Our goal is to develop a theoretical framework on importance sampling for such estimation. By investigating the variance of an importance sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-27 Yen-Chi Chen , Youngjun Choe

Importance sampling is often used in machine learning when training and testing data come from different distributions. In this paper we propose a new variant of importance sampling that can reduce the variance of importance sampling-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-11 Philip S. Thomas , Emma Brunskill

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new Monte Carlo method based on importance sampling techniques for the simulation of stochastic differential equations. The main idea is to combine random walk on squares or rectangles methods with…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-22 Madalina Deaconu , Antoine Lejay

In ordinary importance sampling with a nonnegative integrand there exists an importance sampling strategy with zero variance. Practical sampling strategies are often based on approximating that optimal solution, potentially approaching zero…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-02 Art B. Owen

Importance sampling is widely used in machine learning and statistics, but its power is limited by the restriction of using simple proposals for which the importance weights can be tractably calculated. We address this problem by studying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-18 Qiang Liu , Jason D. Lee

In this paper, we consider the problem of numerical investigation of the counting statistics for a class of one-dimensional systems. Importance sampling, the cornerstone technique usually implemented for such problems, critically hinges on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-08-12 Ivan N. Burenev , Satya N. Majumdar , Alberto Rosso

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to estimate properties of a distribution. This paper investigates trading-off some bias for variance by adaptively winsorizing the importance sampling estimator. The novel winsorizing…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-10 Paulo Orenstein

In various high-energy physics contexts, such as neutrino-oscillation experiments, several assumptions underlying the typical asymptotic confidence interval construction are violated, such that one has to resort to computationally expensive…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2024-05-09 Lukas Berns

This paper provides an introductory overview of how one may employ importance sampling effectively as a tool for solving stochastic optimization formulations incorporating tail risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk. Approximating…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-11 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy

We present a novel approach for the integration of scattering cross sections and the generation of partonic event samples in high-energy physics. We propose an importance sampling technique capable of overcoming typical deficiencies of…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-04-29 Enrico Bothmann , Timo Janßen , Max Knobbe , Tobias Schmale , Steffen Schumann

Compressed sensing is a method that allows a significant reduction in the number of samples required for accurate measurements in many applications in experimental sciences and engineering. In this work, we show that compressed sensing can…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2015-06-05 X. Andrade , J. N. Sanders , A. Aspuru-Guzik

We review an established Bayesian sampling method called sampling/importance resampling and highlight situations in nuclear theory when it can be particularly useful. To this end we both analyse a toy problem and demonstrate realistic…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2023-01-18 Weiguang Jiang , Christian Forssén

We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis aims at combining both reliability and sensitivity analyses by quantifying the influence of each input variable of a numerical model on a quantity of interest related to its failure. In particular,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio
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