English

An importance sampling method for Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals

High Energy Physics - Experiment 2024-05-09 v1 Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability

Abstract

In various high-energy physics contexts, such as neutrino-oscillation experiments, several assumptions underlying the typical asymptotic confidence interval construction are violated, such that one has to resort to computationally expensive methods like the Feldman-Cousins method for obtaining confidence intervals with proper statistical coverage. By construction, the computation of intervals at high confidence levels requires fitting millions or billions of pseudo-experiments, while wasting most of the computational cost on overly precise intervals at low confidence levels. In this work, a simple importance sampling method is introduced which reuses pseudo-experiments produced for all tested parameter values in a single mixture distribution. This results in a significant error reduction on the estimated critical values, especially at high confidence levels, and simultaneously yields a correct interpolation of these critical values between the parameter values at which the pseudo-experiments were produced. The theoretically calculated performance is demonstrated numerically using a simple example from the analysis of neutrino oscillations. The relationship to similar techniques applied in statistical mechanics and pp-value computations is discussed.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2303.11290,
  title  = {An importance sampling method for Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals},
  author = {Lukas Berns},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.11290},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

16 pages, 7 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-28T09:24:40.226Z