Related papers: Foreshocks Explained by Cascades of Triggered Seis…

We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions P(r) of the number r of earthquakes in finite space-time windows for the California catalog, over fixed spatial boxes 5 x 5 km^2 and time intervals dt =1, 10, 100 and…

We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic…

Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…

We propose a new physically-based ``multifractal stress activation'' model of earthquake interaction and triggering based on two simple ingredients: (i) a seismic rupture results from activated processes giving an exponential dependence on…

We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law…

The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…

Discoveries of the scale-free and small-world features are reported on a network constructed from the seismic data. It is shown that the connectivity distribution decays as a power law, and the value of the degrees of separation, i.e., the…

We use the multi-spacecraft capabilities of the Cluster and THEMIS missions to show that two types of foreshock may be detected in spacecraft data. One is the global foreshock that appears upstream of the Earth's quasi-parallel bow-shock…

We show that Bak et al.'s unified scaling law cannot be trivially explained by a single Omori aftershock sequence. On the contrary, the spatial heterogeneity of seismicity plays a fundamental role in the unified scaling law, which implies…

Self-similarity indicates that large and small earthquakes share the same physics, where all variables scale with rupture length $L$. Here I show that rupture tip acceleration during the start of dynamic rupture (break-out phase) is also…

The concept of memory is of central importance for characterizing complex systems and phenomena. Presence of long-term memories indicates how their dynamics can be less sensitive to initial conditions compared to the chaotic cases. On the…

The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent…

The size or energy of diverse structures or phenomena in geoscience appears to follow power-law distributions. A rigorous statistical analysis of such observations is tricky, though. Observables can span several orders of magnitude, but the…

The role of the moon in triggering earthquakes has been studied since the early 1900s. Theory states that as land tides swept by the moon cross fault lines, stress in the Earth's plates intensifies, increasing the likelihood of small…

A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be preceded by a…

Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it…

This paper is devoted to the study of the interaction between two distinct forms of non-stationary processes, which we will refer to as non-stationarity of first and second kind. The non-stationarity of first kind is caused by…

In many complex systems a continuous input of energy over time can be suddenly relaxed in the form of avalanches. Conventional avalanche models disregard the possibility of internal dynamical effects in the inter-avalanche periods, and thus…

Fluctuations in the occurrence of large, disastrous earthquakes are important for the study of deviations from the regular behavior of earthquakes. In this study, to assist in our understanding of the irregular behavior of earthquake…

The two-fractal overlap model of earthquake shows that the contact area distribution of two fractal surfaces follows power law decay in many cases and this agrees with the Guttenberg-Richter power law. Here, we attempt to predict the large…