Related papers: Foreshocks Explained by Cascades of Triggered Seis…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
The Hawkes process is a versatile stochastic model for point patterns that exhibit self-excitation, that is, the property that an event occurrence increases the rate of occurrence for some period of time in the future. We present a Bayesian…
We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities". The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive…
Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquake have been reported over centuries. Radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes, earthquake lights near the epicenter are recognized as pre-earthquake signals to approach…
Soil liquefaction is a significant natural hazard associated with earthquakes. Some of its devastating effects include tilting and sinking of buildings and bridges, and destruction of pipelines. Conventional geotechnical engineering…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
The decay pattern of aftershocks in the so-called 'coherent-noise' models [M. E. J. Newman and K. Sneppen, Phys. Rev. E54, 6226 (1996)] is studied in detail. Analytical and numerical results show that the probability to find a large event…
Using the standard ETAS model of triggered seismicity, we present a rigorous theoretical analysis of the main statistical properties of temporal clusters, defined as the group of events triggered by a given main shock of fixed magnitude m…
A semiconductor model of rocks is shown to describe unipolar magnetic pulses, a phenomenon that has been observed prior to earthquakes. These pulses are observable because their extremely long wavelength allows them to pass through the…
The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events.…
Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we…
A generic saddle-node bifurcation is proposed to modelize fast transitions of finite amplitude arising in geophysical (and perhaps other) contexts, when they result from the intrinsic dynamics of the system. The fast transition is…
The aftershocks of the Tohoku earthquake are analyzed in light of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks. The theory is based on the concept of an earthquake source as a dynamic system, the state of which is described by a deactivation…
According to the presented work, VLF/LF electromagnetic emissions might be declared as the main precursor of earthquakes since based on these very emissions, it might predict ($M\ge 5$) inland earthquakes. As for ULF radiations, it governs…
Spatio-temporal correlations of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. Particular attention is paid to clarifying how the statistical…
A review of the statistical properties of earthquakes is provided, centered mainly in the work of the author (apologies for that). We explain the scaling law for the recurrence-time distributions, its universal character for stationary…
The time dependence of the parameter of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) magnitude distribution is computed for foreshock sequences of earthquakes, correlated with the main shock, by using the geometric-growth model of earthquake focus, the…
Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this…
Here a method is presented for detecting precursors of earthquakes from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. Regional Entropy of Seismic Information, a quantity representing the average influence of an earthquake in the…
The origin of earthquake has long been recognized as resulting from strike-slip instability of plate tectonics along the fault lines. Several events of earthquake around the globe have happened which cannot be explained by this theory. In…