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We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-23 Young Lee , Kar Wai Lim , Cheng Soon Ong

We present a Cross-Entropy based population Monte Carlo algorithm. This methods stands apart from previous work in that we are not optimizing a mixture distribution. Instead, we leverage deterministic mixture weights and optimize the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-09 Caleb Miller , Jem N. Corcoran , Michael D. Schneider

Article describes the results of the development and using of Rare-Event Monte-Carlo Simulation Algorithms for Dynamic Fault Trees Estimation. For Fault Trees estimation usually analytical methods are used (Minimal Cut sets, Markov Chains,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-28 Sergey Porotsky

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often deemed too computationally intensive to be of any practical use for big data applications, and in particular for inference on datasets containing a large number $n$ of individual data points, also…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-13 Rémi Bardenet , Arnaud Doucet , Chris Holmes

A change in the number of motor units that operate a particular muscle is an important indicator for the progress of a neuromuscular disease and the efficacy of a therapy. Inference for realistic statistical models of the typical data…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-12 Simon Taylor , Chris Sherlock , Gareth Ridall , Paul Fearnhead

The basic problem in equilibrium statistical mechanics is to compute phase space average, in which Monte Carlo method plays a very important role. We begin with a review of nonlocal algorithms for Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Jian-Sheng Wang

We briefly review the principles, mathematical bases, numerical shortcuts and applications of fast random walk (FRW) algorithms. This Monte Carlo technique allows one to simulate individual trajectories of diffusing particles in order to…

Computational Physics · Physics 2013-05-01 Denis Grebenkov

Monte Carlo simulations have boosted the numerical study of several different physical systems and in particular, the canonical ensemble has been especially useful because of the existence of easy and efficient relaxation algorithms…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-10-29 G. Palma , A. Riveros

This paper presents a control variate-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for efficient sampling from the probability simplex, with a focus on applications in large-scale Bayesian models such as latent Dirichlet allocation. Standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-02 Francesco Barile , Christopher Nemeth

The Monte Carlo method is a thriving and mathematically beautiful numerical technique used extensively, nowadays, to deal with many demanding problems in diverse fields. Here, we present an iterative Monte Carlo algorithm to work out very…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-08-02 Martín Chávez-Páez , Enrique González-Tovar , Guillermo Iván Guerrero-García

Computer simulations in QCD are based on the discretization of the theory on a Euclidean lattice. To compute the mean value of an observable, usually the Hybrid Monte Carlo method is applied. Here equations of motion, derived from an…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2011-12-20 Michael Striebel , Michael Günther , Francesco Knechtli , Michèle Wandelt

We explore a rigorous formulation of agent-based SIR epidemic dynamics as a discrete-state Markov process, capturing the stochastic propagation of infection or an invading agent on networks. Using indicator functions and corresponding…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-01-14 A. Y. Klimenko , A. Rozycki , Y. Lu

At the scale of the individual cell, protein production is a stochastic process with multiple time scales, combining quick and slow random steps with discontinuous and smooth variation. Hybrid stochastic processes, in particular…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2019-05-02 Guilherme C. P. Innocentini , Fernando Antoneli , Arran Hodgkinson , Ovidiu Radulescu

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to simulate from complex statistical distributions by way of a local exploration of these distributions. This local feature avoids heavy requests on understanding the nature of the target, but it…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-12 Christian P. Robert , Victor Elvira , Nick Tawn , Changye Wu

Stochastic differential equations are often simulated with the Monte Carlo Euler method. Convergence of this method is well understood in the case of globally Lipschitz continuous coefficients of the stochastic differential equation. The…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2011-11-18 Martin Hutzenthaler , Arnulf Jentzen

We develop a real-time Full Configuration Interaction Quantum Monte Carlo approach for the modeling of driven-dissipative open quantum systems. The method enables stochastic sampling of the Liouville-von-Neumann time evolution of the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-06-06 Alexandra Nagy , Vincenzo Savona

An approach is introduced for comparing the estimated states of stochastic compartmental models for an epidemic or biological process with analytically obtained solutions from the corresponding system of ordinary differential equations…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-06-30 Alison C Hale , Christopher P Jewell

This paper studies the spread dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and varying population size, which is formulated as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. A threshold dynamic determined by the basic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-10-26 Dan Li , Shengqiang Liu , Jing'an Cui

Reflected diffusions in polyhedral domains are commonly used as approximate models for stochastic processing networks in heavy traffic. Stationary distributions of such models give useful information on the steady state performance of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-24 Amarjit Budhiraja , Jiang Chen , Sylvain Rubenthaler

We extend the Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm for approximately solving optimal stopping problems on high-dimensional state spaces. We reformulate the optimal stopping problem for Markov processes in discrete time as a generalized statistical…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Daniel Egloff