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Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

We study a class of Markov processes that combine local dynamics, arising from a fixed Markov process, with regenerations arising at a state-dependent rate. We give conditions under which such processes possess a given target distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Andi Q. Wang , Murray Pollock , Gareth O. Roberts , David Steinsaltz

We present a new implementation of the Monte Carlo method to simulate the evolution of star clusters. The major improvement with respect to the previously developed codes is the treatment of the external tidal field taking into account for…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-22 A. Sollima , A. Mastrobuono Battisti

In this paper we introduce and discuss numerical schemes for the approximation of kinetic equations for flocking behavior with phase transitions that incorporate uncertain quantities. This class of schemes here considered make use of a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-31 Jose Antonio Carrillo , Mattia Zanella

Biochemical reaction networks are often modelled using discrete-state, continuous-time Markov chains. System statistics of these Markov chains usually cannot be calculated analytically and therefore estimates must be generated via…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-04-19 Daniel Wilson , Ruth E. Baker

A Monte Carlo method to sample the classical configurational canonical ensemble is introduced. In contrast to the Metropolis algorithm, where trial moves can be rejected, in this approach collisions take place. The implementation is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-19 E. A. J. F. Peters , G. de With

Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-02 Georgios Efstathiadis

Deterministic compartmental models are predominantly used in the modeling of infectious diseases, though stochastic models are considered more realistic, yet are complicated to estimate due to missing data. In this paper we present a novel…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-22 Shuying Wang , Stephen G. Walker

If a stochastic system during some periods of its evolution can be divided into non-interacting parts, the kinetics of each part can be simulated independently. We show that this can be used in the development of efficient Monte Carlo…

Materials Science · Physics 2009-11-13 V. I. Tokar , H. Dreyssé

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Stochastic versions of recursive integrated climate-economy assessment models are essential for studying and quantifying policy decisions under uncertainty. However, as the number of state variables and stochastic shocks increases, solving…

Simulation-based techniques such as variants of stochastic Runge-Kutta are the de facto approach for inference with stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in machine learning. These methods are general-purpose and used with parametric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Arno Solin , Ella Tamir , Prakhar Verma

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-21 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Sebastian J. Vollmer , Arnaud Doucet

As a result of the application of a technique of multistep processes stochastic models construction the range of models, implemented as a self-consistent differential equations, was obtained. These are partial differential equations (master…

Computational Physics · Physics 2016-06-22 M. N. Gevorkyan , T. R. Velieva , A. V. Korolkova , D. S. Kulyabov , L. A. Sevastyanov

A practical and new Runge--Kutta numerical scheme for stochastic differential equations is explored. Numerical examples demonstrate the strong convergence of the method. The first order strong convergence is then proved using Ito integrals…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-10-04 A. J. Roberts

We develop a Monte-Carlo based numerical method for solving discrete-time stochastic optimal control problems with inventory. These are optimal control problems in which the control affects only a deterministically evolving inventory…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-05 Alessandro Balata , Jan Palczewski

We develop a new Monte Carlo method that solves hyperbolic transport equations with stiff terms, characterized by a (small) scaling parameter. In particular, we focus on systems which lead to a reduced problem of parabolic type in the limit…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-08-01 G. Dimarco , L. Pareschi , G. Samaey

Gamma distributed delay differential equations (DDEs) arise naturally in many modelling applications. However, appropriate numerical methods for generic Gamma distributed DDEs are not currently available. Accordingly, modellers often resort…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-04-09 Tyler Cassidy , Peter Gillich , Antony R. Humphries , Christiaan H. van Dorp

Our study focuses on fractional order compartment models derived from underlying physical stochastic processes, providing a more physically grounded approach compared to models that use the dynamical system approach by simply replacing…

The need to calibrate increasingly complex statistical models requires a persistent effort for further advances on available, computationally intensive Monte Carlo methods. We study here an advanced version of familiar Markov Chain Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-20 Alexandros Beskos , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Erik Pazos