Related papers: Forecast and event control: On what is and what ca…
Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…
In ergodic physical systems, time-averaged quantities converge (for large times) to their ensemble-averaged values. Large deviation theory describes rare events where these time averages differ significantly from the corresponding ensemble…
Reasoning about unpredicted change consists in explaining observations by events; we propose here an approach for explaining time-stamped observations by surprises, which are simple events consisting in the change of the truth value of a…
In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…
When a dataset contains forecasts on unscheduled events, such as natural catastrophes, outcomes may be censored or ``hidden'' since some events have not yet occurred. This article finds that this can lead to a selection bias which affects…
Consider a time series with missing observations but a known final point. Using control theory ideas we estimate/predict these missing observations. We obtain recurrence equations which minimize sum of squares of a control sequence. An…
The causal order of events need not be fixed: whether a bus arrives before or after another at a certain stop can depend on other variables -- like traffic. Coherent quantum control of causal order is possible too and is a useful resource…
It is well known that the imposition of a constraint can transform the properties of critical systems. Early work on this phenomenon by Essam and Garelick, Fisher, and others, focused on the effects of constraints on the leading critical…
We describe quantum controllability under the influences of the quantum decoherence induced by the quantum control itself. It is shown that, when the controller is considered as a quantum system, it will entangle with its controlled system…
Extreme events gain the attention of researchers due to their utmost importance in various contexts ranging from finance to climatology. This brings such recurrent events to the limelight of attention in interdisciplinary research. A…
The paper deals with a problem of control of a system characterized by the fact that the influence of controls on the dynamics of certain functions of state variables (called observables) is relatively weak and the rates of change of these…
We consider the Chance Constrained Model Predictive Control problem for polynomial systems subject to disturbances. In this problem, we aim at finding optimal control input for given disturbed dynamical system to minimize a given cost…
By the nonstandard analysis theory of turbulence, the governing equations of compressible turbulence are given. The equations can hold at non-uniform points, in fact, are new kind of equations. There are three choices. In the choice one,…
This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets…
Measuring dependence between two events, or equivalently between two binary random variables, amounts to expressing the dependence structure inherent in a $2\times 2$ contingency table in a real number between $-1$ and $1$. Countless such…
The use of available disturbance predictions within a nominal model predictive control formulation is studied. The main challenge that arises is the loss of recursive feasibility and stability guarantees when a persistent disturbance is…
We report an inconsistency found in probability theory (also referred to as measure-theoretic probability). For probability measures induced by real-valued random variables, we deduce an "equality" such that one side of the "equality" is a…
Chaos is widely understood as being a consequence of sensitive dependence upon initial conditions. This is the result of an instability in phase space, which separates trajectories exponentially. Here, we demonstrate that this criterion…
Ecological forecasts are model-based statements about currently unknown ecosystem states in time or space. For a model forecast to be useful to inform decision makers, model validation and verification determine adequateness. The measure of…
The predictability of a sequence is defined as the asymptotic performance of the best performing predictor in a given class. The value of the predictability of a sequence will in general depend on the choice of this predictor class. The…