Related papers: Dynamical epidemic suppression using stochastic pr…
Epidemic control is of great importance for human society. Adjusting interacting partners is an effective individualized control strategy. Intuitively, it is done either by shortening the interaction time between susceptible and infected…
Stochastic dynamical systems allow modelling of transitions induced by disturbances, in particular from an attracting equilibrium and crossing the stable manifold of a saddle. In the small-noise limit, the probability of such transitions is…
We study how environmental stochasticity influences the long-term population size in certain one- and two-species models. The difficulty is that even when one can prove that there is persistence, it is usually impossible to say anything…
We study the epidemic spreading process following contact dynamics with heavy-tailed waiting time distributions. We show both analytically and numerically that the temporal heterogeneity of contact dynamics can significantly suppress the…
We study a generalised model of population growth in which the state variable is population growth rate instead of population size. Stochastic parametric perturbations, modelling phenotypic variability, lead to a Langevin system with two…
Inferring how an epidemic will progress and what actions to take when presented with limited information is of critical importance for epidemiologists and health professionals. In real world settings, epidemiology data can be scarce or…
While noise is generally associated with uncertainties and often has a negative connotation in engineering, living organisms have evolved to adapt to (and even exploit) such uncertainty to ensure the survival of a species or implement…
The transient behavior of an ecosystem with N random interacting species in the presence of a multiplicative noise is analyzed. The multiplicative noise mimics the interaction with the environment. We investigate different asymptotic…
We study the impact of stochastic perturbations to deterministic dynamical systems using the formalism of the Ruelle response theory and explore how stochastic noise can be used to explore the properties of the underlying deterministic…
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…
Stochastic chemical reaction or population dynamics in finite systems often terminates in an absorbing state. Yet in large spatially extended systems, the time to reach species extinction (or fixation) becomes exceedingly long. Tuning…
Analysis is presented of a system whose dynamics are dramatically simplified by tiny amounts of additive noise. The dynamics divide naturally into two phases. In the slower phase, trajectories are close to an invariant manifold; this allows…
For cellular biochemical reaction systems where the numbers of molecules is small, significant noise is associated with chemical reaction events. This molecular noise can give rise to behavior that is very different from the predictions of…
Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate…
We present the observation that the process of stochastic model predictive control can be formulated in the framework of iterated function systems. The latter has a rich ergodic theory that can be applied to study the system's long-run…
In this paper we study some mathematical models describing evolution of population density and spread of epidemics in population systems in which spatial movement of individuals depends only on the departure and arrival locations and does…
The spreading dynamics of an epidemic and the collective behavioral pattern of the population over which it spreads are deeply intertwined and the latter can critically shape the outcome of the former. Motivated by this, we design a…
We consider control of reaction and population systems by deterministically imposed transitions between the states with different numbers of particles or individuals. Even where the imposed transitions are significantly less frequent than…
Different strains competing for a common pool of susceptible individuals is a key problem in mathematical epidemiology. To address this problem, we investigate a two-strain model within a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) framework.…
Stochastic processes with multiplicative noise have been studied independently in several different contexts over the past decades. We focus on the regime, found for a generic set of control parameters, in which stochastic processes with…