English

Suppression of epidemic outbreaks with heavy-tailed contact dynamics

Physics and Society 2013-10-09 v2 Statistical Mechanics Populations and Evolution

Abstract

We study the epidemic spreading process following contact dynamics with heavy-tailed waiting time distributions. We show both analytically and numerically that the temporal heterogeneity of contact dynamics can significantly suppress the disease's transmissibility, hence the size of epidemic outbreak, obstructing the spreading process. Furthermore, when the temporal heterogeneity is strong enough, one obtains the vanishing transmissibility for any finite recovery time and regardless of underlying structure of contacts, the condition of which was derived.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1303.4504,
  title  = {Suppression of epidemic outbreaks with heavy-tailed contact dynamics},
  author = {Byungjoon Min and K. -I. Goh and I. -M. Kim},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1303.4504},
  year   = {2013}
}

Comments

5 pages, 3 figures