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We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-28 Pierre Montagnon

Infection spread among individuals is modelled with a continuous time Markov chain, in which subject interactions depend on their distance in space. The well known SIR model and non local variants of the latter are then obtained as large…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-27 Franco Flandoli , Francesco Grotto , Andrea Papini , Cristiano Ricci

The transport and chemical reactions of solutes are modelled as a cellular automaton in which molecules of different species perform a random walk on a regular lattice and react according to a local probabilistic rule. The model describes…

comp-gas · Physics 2009-10-22 T. Karapiperis , B. Blankleider

Contemporary epidemiological models often involve spatial variation, providing an avenue to investigate the averaged dynamics of individual movements. In this work, we extend a recent model by Vaziry, Kolokolnikov, and Kevrekidis [Royal…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-01 Maryam Ahmadpoortorkamani , Alexei Cheviakov

The stochastic discrete space-time model of an immune response on tumor spreading in a two-dimensional square lattice has been developed. The immunity-tumor interactions are described at the cellular level and then transferred into the…

comp-gas · Physics 2007-05-23 Margarita Voitikova

Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-12-21 César Parra-Rojas , Thomas House , Alan J. McKane

Currently, the world has been facing the brunt of a pandemic due to a disease called COVID-19 for the last 2 years. To study the spread of such infectious diseases it is important to not only understand their temporal evolution but also the…

Biological Physics · Physics 2023-08-01 Sourav Chowdhury , Suparna Roychowdhury , Indranath Chaudhuri

We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents' movements. We show that several…

General Economics · Economics 2022-01-31 Alberto Bisin , Andrea Moro

Characterizing the spatial extent of epidemics at the outbreak stage is key to controlling the evolution of the disease. At the outbreak, the number of infected individuals is typically small, so that fluctuations around their average are…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-03-21 Eric Dumonteil , Satya N. Majumdar , Alberto Rosso , Andrea Zoia

In this work, we study the epidemic SIR model on a system which takes into consideration face-to-face interaction networks. This approach has been used as prototype to describe people interactions in different kinds of social organizations…

Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-06-28 O. Mosbah , N. Zekri , M. Mokhtari , S. Sahraoui

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Frank G Ball , Edward S Knock , Philip D O'Neill

Infectious disease models can be of great use for understanding the underlying mechanisms that influence the spread of diseases and predicting future disease progression. Modeling has been increasingly used to evaluate the potential impact…

Applications · Statistics 2019-08-20 Md Mahsin , Rob Deardon , Patrick Brown

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…

Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-01-23 Frank Ball , Thomas House

A lattice-gas cellular automaton (LGCA) model is used to simulate rippling and aggregation in myxobacteria. An efficient way of representing cells of different cell size, shape and orientation is presented that may be easily extended to…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-10 Mark S. Alber , Yi Jiang , Maria A. Kiskowski

In this manuscript, we develop a mobility-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model to elucidate the dynamics of pandemic propagation. While traditional SIR models within the field of epidemiology aptly characterize transitions…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-01-16 Ciana Applegate , Jiaxu Li , Dan Han

We study an optimal control problem where the objective is to find the best vaccine allocation during an epidemic outbreak. The epidemic dynamics is described by an age-structured SIR model with nonlocal interactions. Both the infection and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Luís Almeida , Romain Ducasse , Elisa Paparelli

We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model in the case of a population of pathogens infecting a homogeneous host population. The pathogen population is structured by a genotypic variable. When the initial mass of the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-06-05 Jean-Baptiste Burie , Arnaud Ducrot , Quentin Griette

An epidemic model with births and deaths is considered on a two dimensional LxL lattice. Each individual can have global infective contacts according to the standard SIR model rules or local infective contacts with its nearest neighbors. We…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-22 Alberto Maltz , Gabriel Fabricius