Related papers: Hierarchical Markovian modeling of multi-time scal…
Interaction within small groups can often be represented as a sequence of events, where each event involves a sender and a recipient. Recent methods for modeling network data in continuous time model the rate at which individuals interact…
This paper investigates the modeling of an important class of degradation data, which are collected from a spatial domain over time; for example, the surface quality degradation. Like many existing time-dependent stochastic degradation…
We consider a class of stochastic dynamical systems, called piecewise deterministic Markov processes, with states $(x, \s)\in \O\times \G$, $\O$ being a region in $\bbR^d$ or the $d$--dimensional torus, $\G$ being a finite set. The…
We present a method to find the best temporal partition at any time-scale and rank the relevance of partitions found at different time-scales. This method is based on random walkers coevolving with the network and as such constitutes a…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
The statistical modeling of multivariate count data observed on a space-time lattice has generally focused on using a hierarchical modeling approach where space-time correlation structure is placed on a continuous, latent, process. The…
We study a class of multi-stage stochastic programs, which incorporate modeling features from Markov decision processes (MDPs). This class includes structured MDPs with continuous action and state spaces. We extend policy graphs to include…
The solutions of Hamiltonian equations are known to describe the underlying phase space of a mechanical system. In this article, we propose a novel spatio-temporal model using a strategic modification of the Hamiltonian equations,…
This paper extends the subjects dicussed in the Data Analysis and Dynamical Systems courses by looking at the subject of modelling data. This task is nontrivial as the underlying process could be non-linear. In the paper some common…
A Markovian dichotomic system driven by a deterministic time-periodic force is analyzed in terms of the statistical properties of the switching events between the states. The consideration of the counting process of the switching events…
We analyze energy spreading for a system that features mixed chaotic phase-space, whose control parameters (or slow degrees of freedom) vary quasi-statically. For demonstration purpose we consider the restricted 3~body problem, where the…
We show that the occurrence of chaotic diffusion in a typical class of time-delayed systems with linear instantaneous and nonlinear delayed term can be well described by an anti-persistent random walk. We numerically investigate the…
Temporal inhomogeneities observed in various natural and social phenomena have often been characterized in terms of scaling behaviors in the autocorrelation function with a decaying exponent $\gamma$, the interevent time distribution with a…
In this paper we propose a model for open Markov chains that can be interpreted as a system of non-interacting particles evolving according to the rules of a Markov chain. The number of particles in the system is not constant, because we…
Most methods for modelling dynamics posit just two time scales: a fast and a slow scale. But many applications, including many in continuum mechanics, possess a wide variety of space-time scales; often they possess a continuum of space-time…
We analyse diffusion dynamics on weakly-coupled networks (interconnected networks) by means of separation of time scales. Using an adiabatic approximation we reduced the system dynamics to a Markov chain with aggregated variables and…
We apply a recently proposed novel thermostating mechanism to an interacting many-particle system where the bulk particles are moving according to Hamiltonian dynamics. At the boundaries the system is thermalized by deterministic and…
This manuscript develops computationally efficient online learning for multivariate spatiotemporal models. The method relies on matrix-variate Gaussian distributions, dynamic linear models, and Bayesian predictive stacking to efficiently…
Non-Markovian stochastic processes are ubiquitous in biology. Nevertheless, we lack a general framework for quantifying historical dependencies. In this Letter, we propose an information-theoretic approach to decompose history dependence in…
We consider a stochastic process which is (a) described by a continuous-time Markov chain on only short time-scales and (b) constrained to conserve a number of hidden quantities on long time-scales. We assume that the transition matrix of…