Related papers: A filtering approach to tracking volatility from p…
Identifying the structural dependence between the cryptocurrencies and predicting market trend are fundamental for effective portfolio management in cryptocurrency trading. In this paper, we present a unified Bayesian framework based on…
We introduce a new method to price American-style options on underlying investments governed by stochastic volatility (SV) models. The method does not require the volatility process to be observed. Instead, it exploits the fact that the…
We study the parameter estimation for parabolic, linear, second-order, stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) observing a mild solution on a discrete grid in time and space. A high-frequency regime is considered where the mesh of…
We study the nature of fluctuations in variety of price indices involving companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The fluctuations at multiple scales are extracted through the use of wavelets belonging to Daubechies basis. The fact…
We consider a Bayesian adaptive optimal stochastic control problem where a hidden static signal has a non-separable influence on the drift of a noisy observation. Being allowed to control the specific form of this dependence, we aim at…
We consider a Markov decision process subject to model uncertainty in a Bayesian framework, where we assume that the state process is observed but its law is unknown to the observer. In addition, while the state process and the controls are…
A nonlinear wave alternative for the standard Black-Scholes option-pricing model is presented. The adaptive-wave model, representing 'controlled Brownian behavior' of financial markets, is formally defined by adaptive nonlinear…
Consider a process satisfying a stochastic differential equation with unknown drift parameter, and suppose that discrete observations are given. It is known that a simple least squares estimator (LSE) can be consistent, but numerically…
We consider two kinds of stochastic volatility models. Both kinds of models contain a stationary volatility process, the density of which, at a fixed instant in time, we aim to estimate. We discuss discrete time models where for instance a…
This paper studies a continuous-time market {under stochastic environment} where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a target terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return with multiple stocks and a…
In this paper we propose a general derivative pricing framework which employs decoupled time-changed (DTC) L\'evy processes to model the underlying asset of contingent claims. A DTC L\'evy process is a generalized time-changed L\'evy…
In the classical quickest detection problem, one must detect as quickly as possible when a Brownian motion without drift "changes" into a Brownian motion with positive drift. The change occurs at an unknown "disorder" time with exponential…
This paper presents closed-form analytical formulas for pricing volatility and variance derivatives with nonlinear payoffs under discrete-time observations. The analysis is based on a probabilistic approach assuming that the underlying…
In this paper we consider the problem of finding stable maxima of expensive (to evaluate) functions. We are motivated by the optimisation of physical and industrial processes where, for some input ranges, small and unavoidable variations in…
The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…
This paper develops a continuous-time filtering framework for estimating a hazard rate subject to an unobservable change-point. This framework naturally arises in both financial and insurance applications, where the default intensity of a…
The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, we review some recent results on the maximum likelihood estimation in the regression model of the form $X_t = \theta G(t) + B_t$, where $B$ is a Gaussian process, $G(t)$ is a known function,…
We revisit the classical Merton consumption--investment problem when risky-asset returns are modeled by stochastic differential equations interpreted through a general $\alpha$-integral, interpolating between It\^{o}, Stratonovich, and…
Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…
In this work, we introduce a novel pricing methodology in general, possibly non-Markovian local stochastic volatility (LSV) models. We observe that by conditioning the LSV dynamics on the Brownian motion that drives the volatility, one…