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Comparing future antibiotic resistance levels resulting from different antibiotic treatments is challenging because some patients may survive only under one of the antibiotic treatments. We embed this problem within a semi-competing risks…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-12 Tamir Zehavi , Uri Obolski , Michal Chowers , Daniel Nevo

The slower is faster (SIF) effect occurs when a system performs worse as its components try to do better. Thus, a moderate individual efficiency actually leads to a better systemic performance. The SIF effect takes place in a variety of…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2016-04-01 Carlos Gershenson , Dirk Helbing

Many research questions concern treatment effects on outcomes that can recur several times in the same individual. For example, medical researchers are interested in treatment effects on hospitalizations in heart failure patients and sports…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-31 Matias Janvin , Jessica G. Young , Pål C. Ryalen , Mats J. Stensrud

In reliability-based design, the estimation of the failure probability is a crucial objective. However, focusing only on the occurrence of the failure event may be insufficient to entirely characterize the reliability of the considered…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-08 Pierre Derennes , Jerome Morio , Florian Simatos

As a natural extension to the standard conformal prediction method, several conformal risk control methods have been recently developed and applied to various learning problems. In this work, we seek to control the conformal risk in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Yunpeng Xu , Wenge Guo , Zhi Wei

There are limited options to estimate the treatment effects of variables which are continuous and measured at multiple time points, particularly if the true dose-response curve should be estimated as closely as possible. However, these…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-11 Michael Schomaker , Helen McIlleron , Paolo Denti , Iván Díaz

Competing risks occur in survival analysis when multiple causes of death are present. They play a prominent role in several domains extending beyond biostatistics to encompass epidemiology, actuarial sciences, and reliability theory. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Claudio Del Sole , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster

We present a new experiment demonstrating destructive interference in customers' estimates of conditional probabilities of product failure. We take the perspective of a manufacturer of consumer products, and consider two situations of cause…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-01 Irina Basieva , Vijitashwa Pandey , Polina Khrennikova

The relative case fatality rates (CFRs) between groups and countries are key measures of relative risk that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the middle of an active…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-12-08 Anastasios Nikolas Angelopoulos , Reese Pathak , Rohit Varma , Michael I. Jordan

In this paper, we revisit and further explore a mathematically rigorous connection between Causal inference (C-inf) and the Low-rank recovery (LRR) established in [10]. Leveraging the Random duality - Free probability theory (RDT-FPT)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-03 Agostino Capponi , Mihailo Stojnic

Process capability indices such as $C_{pk}$ are widely used in manufacturing to support supplier qualification, pilot-build release, and production approval. In practice, approval decisions are often based on deterministic threshold rules…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-14 Fei Jiang , Lei Yang

The failure of a system can result from the simultaneous effects of multiple causes, where assigning a specific cause may be inappropriate or unavailable. Examples include contributing causes of death in epidemiology and the aetiology of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Kai Wang , Yuqin Mu , Shenyi Zhang , Zhengjun Zhang , Chengxiu Ling

We propose a new method for the analysis of competing risks data with long term survivors. The proposed method enables us to estimate the overall survival probability and cure fraction simultaneously. We formulate the effect of covariates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-28 Sudheesh K Kattumannil , Sreedevi E P , Sankaran P G

Covariate imbalance between treatment groups makes it difficult to compare cumulative incidence curves in competing risk analyses. In this paper we discuss different methods to estimate adjusted cumulative incidence curves including inverse…

Calibration is a vital aspect of the performance of risk prediction models, but research in the context of ordinal outcomes is scarce. This study compared calibration measures for risk models predicting a discrete ordinal outcome, and…

Counterfactual (CF) explanations, also known as contrastive explanations and algorithmic recourses, are popular for explaining machine learning models in high-stakes domains. For a subject that receives a negative model prediction (e.g.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-20 Yilun Zhou

We study causal inference under case-control and case-population sampling. Specifically, we focus on the binary-outcome and binary-treatment case, where the parameters of interest are causal relative and attributable risks defined via the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-24 Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

The analysis of randomized controlled trials is often complicated by intercurrent events (IEs) -- events that occur after treatment initiation and affect either the interpretation or existence of outcome measurements. Examples include…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Sizhu Lu , Yanyao Yi , Yongming Qu , Huayu Karen Liu , Ting Ye , Peng Ding

The predictiveness curve is a valuable tool for predictive evaluation, risk stratification, and threshold selection in a target population, given a single biomarker or a prediction model. In the presence of competing risks, regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-04 Wei Tao , Jing Ning , Wen Li , Wenyaw Chan , Xi Luo , Ruosha Li