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In competing risks models, cumulative incidence functions are commonly compared to infer differences between groups. Many existing inference methods, however, struggle when these functions cross during the time frame of interest. To address…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-26 Simon Mack , Marc Ditzhaus , Merle Munko , Markus Pauly

In this expository paper, we consider the problem of causal inference and efficient estimation for the counterfactual survivor function. This problem has previously been considered in the literature in several papers, each relying on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Benjamin R. Baer , Ashkan Ertefaie , Robert L. Strawderman

A population-averaged additive subdistribution hazards model is proposed to assess the marginal effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence function and to analyze correlated failure time data subject to competing risks. This approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-23 Xinyuan Chen , Denise Esserman , Fan Li

Analysis of competing risks data plays an important role in the lifetime data analysis. Recently Feizjavadian and Hashemi (Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, vol. 82, 19-34, 2015) provided a classical inference of a competing risks…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Debashis Samanta , Debasis Kundu

In this paper we establish a mathematically rigorous connection between Causal inference (C-inf) and the low-rank recovery (LRR). Using Random Duality Theory (RDT) concepts developed in [46,48,50] and novel mathematical strategies related…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-03 Agostino Capponi , Mihailo Stojnic

Time-to-event analyses are often plagued by both -- possibly unmeasured -- confounding and competing risks. To deal with the former, the use of instrumental variables for effect estimation is rapidly gaining ground. We show how to make use…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-04 Torben Martinussen , Stijn Vansteelandt

We introduce convex function intervals (CFIs): families of convex functions satisfying given level and slope constraints. CFIs naturally arise as constraint sets in economic design, including problems with type-dependent participation…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-10-27 Victor Augias , Lina Uhe

This paper proposes a new approach for estimating the failure time distribution using the indicator data. The indicators, which are checked by periodic inspection of a standby redundant system, only convey whether at least one failure…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-02-19 Zheng Wang

Despite the popularity of feature importance (FI) measures in interpretable machine learning, the statistical adequacy of these methods is rarely discussed. From a statistical perspective, a major distinction is between analyzing a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-03 Kristin Blesch , David S. Watson , Marvin N. Wright

Cumulative probability models (CPMs) are a robust alternative to linear models for continuous outcomes. However, they are not feasible for very large datasets due to elevated running time and memory usage, which depend on the sample size,…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-15 Chun Li , Guo Chen , Bryan E. Shepherd

Easy-to-interpret effect estimands are highly desirable in survival analysis. In the competing risks framework, one good candidate is the restricted mean time lost (RMTL). It is defined as the area under the cumulative incidence function up…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Merle Munko , Dennis Dobler , Marc Ditzhaus

In failure-time settings, a competing risk event is any event that makes it impossible for the event of interest to occur. For example, cardiovascular disease death is a competing event for prostate cancer death because an individual cannot…

Existing metrics in competing risks survival analysis such as concordance and accuracy do not evaluate a model's ability to jointly predict the event type and the event time. To address these limitations, we propose a new metric, which we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-20 Kartik Ahuja , Mihaela van der Schaar

The use of cumulative incidence functions for characterizing the risk of one type of event in the presence of others has become increasingly popular over the past decade. The problems of modeling, estimation and inference have been treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-16 Youngjoo Cho , Annette M. Molinaro , Chen Hu , Robert L. Strawderman

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is known to model human decisions well, with substantial empirical evidence supporting this claim. CPT works by distorting probabilities and is more general than the classic expected utility and coherent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-01 Prashanth L. A. , Cheng Jie , Michael Fu , Steve Marcus , Csaba Szepesvári

Regression analyses based on transformations of cumulative incidence functions are often adopted when modeling and testing for treatment effects in clinical trial settings involving competing and semi-competing risks. Common frameworks…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-11 Alexandra Bühler , Richard J Cook , Jerald F Lawless

Causal inference is best understood using potential outcomes. This use is particularly important in more complex settings, that is, observational studies or randomized experiments with complications such as noncompliance. The topic of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Donald B. Rubin

The classical reduced-form and filtration expansion framework in credit risk is extended to the case of multiple, non-ordered defaults, assuming that conditional densities of the default times exist. Intensities and pricing formulas are…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-06-22 Younes Kchia , Martin Larsson

Consider the following Stochastic Score Classification Problem. A doctor is assessing a patient's risk of developing a certain disease, and can perform $n$ tests on the patient. Each test has a binary outcome, positive or negative. A…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-06-29 Dimitrios Gkenosis , Nathaniel Grammel , Lisa Hellerstein , Devorah Kletenik

We consider the problem of evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the sum of order statistics, which serves to compute outage probability (OP) values at the output of generalized selection combining receivers. Generally,…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-15 Nadhir Ben Rached , Zdravko Botev , Abla Kammoun , Mohamed-Slim Alouini , Raul Tempone