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We develop a practical framework for distinguishing diffusive stochastic processes from deterministic signals using only a single discrete time series. Our approach is based on classical excursion and crossing theorems for continuous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Sunia Tanweer , Firas A. Khasawneh

We propose a new test to determine whether jumps are present in asset returns or other discretely sampled processes. As the sampling interval tends to 0, our test statistic converges to 1 if there are jumps, and to another deterministic and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-03 Yacine Aït-Sahalia , Jean Jacod

Asymptotic theory for approximate martingale estimating functions is generalised to diffusions with finite-activity jumps, when the sampling frequency and terminal sampling time go to infinity. Rate optimality and efficiency are of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-05 Nina Munkholt Jakobsen , Michael Sørensen

Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a bivariate jump diffusion. A state space representation is used to link observed returns, plus nonparametric measures of…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-10 Worapree Maneesoonthorn , Catherine S. Forbes , Gael M. Martin

For a semimartingale with jumps, we propose a new estimation method for integrated volatility, i.e., the quadratic variation of the continuous martingale part, based on the global jump filter proposed by Inatsugu and Yoshida [8]. To decide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Haruhiko Inatsugu , Nakahiro Yoshida

Estimating spot covariance is an important issue to study, especially with the increasing availability of high-frequency financial data. We study the estimation of spot covariance using a kernel method for high-frequency data. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-21 Konul Mustafayeva , Weining Wang

The problem of integrated volatility estimation for the solution X of a stochastic differential equation with L{\'e}vy-type jumps is considered under discrete high-frequency observations in both short and long time horizon. We provide an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Chiara Amorino , Arnaud Gloter

This paper is concerned with tests for changes in the jump behaviour of a time-continuous process. Based on results on weak convergence of a sequential empirical tail integral process, asymptotics of certain tests statistics for breaks in…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-18 Axel Bücher , Michael Hoffmann , Mathias Vetter , Holger Dette

This paper is the first part of a series of papers on filtering for partially observed jump diffusions satisfying a stochastic differential equation driven by Wiener processes and Poisson martingale measures. The coefficients of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-18 Fabian Germ , István Gyöngy

It\^{o} processes are the most common form of continuous semimartingales, and include diffusion processes. This paper is concerned with the nonparametric regression relationship between two such It\^{o} processes. We are interested in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Per Aslak Mykland , Lan Zhang

In this paper we consider an ergodic diffusion process with jumps whose drift coefficient depends on $\mu$ and volatility coefficient depends on $\sigma$, two unknown parameters. We suppose that the process is discretely observed at the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-30 Chiara Amorino , Arnaud Gloter

The aim of this paper is to examine the time scaling of the semivariance when returns are modeled by various types of jump-diffusion processes, including stochastic volatility models with jumps in returns and in volatility. In particular,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-11-06 Rodrigue Oeuvray , Pascal Junod

In this paper, we study the estimation of drift and diffusion coefficients in a two dimensional system of N interacting particles modeled by a degenerate stochastic differential equation. We consider both complete and partial observation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Chiara Amorino , Vytautė Pilipauskaitė

This article studies nonparametric methods to estimate the co-integrated volatility for multi-dimensional L\'evy processes with high frequency data. We construct a spectral estimator for the co-integrated volatility and prove minimax rates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Katerina Papagiannouli

We derive a nonparametric estimator of the jump-activity index $\beta$ of a "locally-stable" pure-jump It\^{o} semimartingale from discrete observations of the process on a fixed time interval with mesh of the observation grid shrinking to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-19 Viktor Todorov

Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-06 Yunyun Wang , Tatsushi Oka , Dan Zhu

Identifying the instances of jumps in a discrete-time-series sample of a jump diffusion model is a challenging task. We have developed a novel statistical technique for jump detection and volatility estimation in a return time series data…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-03-22 Milan Kumar Das , Anindya Goswami , Sharan Rajani

This paper proposes a novel test for simultaneous jumps in a bivariate It\^o semimartingale when observation times are asynchronous and irregular. Inference is built on a realized correlation coefficient for the jumps of the two processes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-24 Ole Martin , Mathias Vetter

We develop and analyze a class of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators for multivariate jump-diffusion processes with state-dependent drift, volatility, jump intensity and jump size. A change of measure argument is used to extend existing…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-05 Guanting Chen , Alex Shkolnik , Kay Giesecke

For one-dimensional Jump-Drift and Jump-Diffusion processes converging towards some steady state, the large deviations of a long dynamical trajectory are described from two perspectives. Firstly, the joint probability of the empirical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-08-17 Cecile Monthus