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There is a history of simple forecast error growth models designed to capture the key properties of error growth in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. We propose here such a scalar model that relies on the previous ones…
We prove non-asymptotic error bounds for Sequential MCMC methods in the case of multimodal target distributions. Our bounds depend in an explicit way on upper bounds on relative densities, on constants associated with local mixing…
Using high precision Monte Carlo simulations and a mean-field theory, we explore coarsening phenomena in a simple driven diffusive system. The model is reminiscent of vehicular traffic on a two-lane ring road. At sufficiently high density,…
In this article, an efficient sequential linear programming algorithm (SLP) for uncertainty analysis-based data-driven computational mechanics (UA-DDCM) is presented. By assuming that the uncertain constitutive relationship embedded behind…
We derive theorems which outline explicit mechanisms by which anomalous scaling for the probability density function of the sum of many correlated random variables asymptotically prevails. The results characterize general anomalous scaling…
In this paper, we study the problem of computing the effective diffusivity for particles moving in chaotic flows. Instead of solving a convection-diffusion type cell problem in the Eulerian formulation (arising from homogenization theory…
We develop and analyse numerical schemes for uncertainty quantification in neural field equations subject to random parametric data in the synaptic kernel, firing rate, external stimulus, and initial conditions. The schemes combine a…
Stationary solutions to a Fokker-Planck equation corresponding to a noisy logistic equation with correlated Gaussian white noises are constructed. Stationary distributions exist even if the corresponding deterministic system displays an…
The continuous extension of a discrete random variable is amongst the computational methods used for estimation of multivariate normal copula-based models with discrete margins. Its advantage is that the likelihood can be derived…
Spontaneous stochasticity refers to the emergence of intrinsic randomness in deterministic systems under singular limits, a phenomenon conjectured to be fundamental in turbulence. Armstrong and Vicol \citep{AV23,AV24} recently constructed a…
Methods for Bayesian simulation in the presence of computationally intractable likelihood functions are of growing interest. Termed likelihood-free samplers, standard simulation algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been adapted…
Recently an analytical model was presented that treats the nonlinear signal distortion from the Kerr nonlinearity in optical transmission systems as additive white Gaussian noise. This important model predicts the impact of the Kerr…
We propose a method to classify the causal relationship between two discrete variables given only the joint distribution of the variables, acknowledging that the method is subject to an inherent baseline error. We assume that the causal…
Stochastic Rounding is a probabilistic rounding mode that is surprisingly effective in large-scale computations and low-precision arithmetic. Its random nature promotes error cancellation rather than error accumulation, resulting in slower…
We study a generalised model of population growth in which the state variable is population growth rate instead of population size. Stochastic parametric perturbations, modelling phenotypic variability, lead to a Langevin system with two…
Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…
We consider the speed of propagation of a {continuous-time continuous-space} branching random walk with the additional restriction that the birth rate at any spatial point cannot exceed $1$. The dispersion kernel is taken to have density…
Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…
The discretization of optimal transport problems often leads to large linear programs with sparse solutions. We derive error estimates for the approximation of the problem using convex combinations of Dirac measures and devise an active-set…
This work is concerned with existence of weak solutions to discon- tinuous stochastic differential equations driven by multiplicative Gaus- sian noise and sliding mode control dynamics generated by stochastic differential equations with…