Related papers: Consistent estimation of the basic neighborhood of…
Mean field games formalize dynamic games with a continuum of players and explicit interaction where the players can have heterogeneous states. As they additionally yield approximate equilibria of corresponding $N$-player games, they are of…
We present a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of mathematical models of cardiac electrophysiology with quantified uncertainty. Such models capture the dynamics of the electrical signal that coordinates the muscle cell…
We continue development of the theory of Markov systems initiated in \cite{Wer1}. In this paper, we introduce fundamental Markov systems associated with random dynamical systems and show that the proof of the uniqueness and empiricalness of…
An important objective of the classical processing of stationary random sequences under nonparametric uncertainty is the problem of filtering in case when the distribution of the underlying signal is unknown. In this paper it is assumed…
While on the one hand, chaotic dynamical systems can be predicted for all time given exact knowledge of an initial state, they are also in many cases rapidly mixing, meaning that smooth probabilistic information (quantified by measures) on…
We focus on the parametric estimation of the distribution of a Markov environment from the observation of a single trajectory of a one-dimensional nearest-neighbor path evolving in this random environment. In the ballistic case, as the…
Random dynamical systems with countably many maps which admit countable Markov partitions on complete metric spaces such that the resulting Markov systems are uniformly continuous and contractive are considered. A non-degeneracy and a…
Gaussian empirical Bayes methods usually maintain a precision independence assumption: The unknown parameters of interest are independent from the known standard errors of the estimates. This assumption is often theoretically questionable…
We consider local alignments without gaps of two independent Markov chains from a finite alphabet, and we derive sufficient conditions for the number of essentially different local alignments with a score exceeding a high threshold to be…
We introduce a novel Gibbs Markov random field for spatial data on Cartesian grids based on the modified planar rotator (MPR) model of statistical physics. The MPR captures spatial correlations using nearest-neighbor interactions of…
Methods for Bayesian simulation in the presence of computationally intractable likelihood functions are of growing interest. Termed likelihood-free samplers, standard simulation algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been adapted…
Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…
Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…
Bayesian inference for stationary random fields is computationally demanding. Whittle-type likelihoods in the frequency domain based on the fast Fourier Transform (FFT) have several appealing features: i) low computational complexity of…
The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a…
Mean-field variational inference is a method for approximate Bayesian posterior inference. It approximates a full posterior distribution with a factorized set of distributions by maximizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood. This…
In the 1960s, Shiryaev developed a Bayesian theory of change-point detection in the i.i.d. case, which was generalized in the beginning of the 2000s by Tartakovsky and Veeravalli for general stochastic models assuming a certain stability of…
Two high-level "pictures" of probability theory have emerged: one that takes as central the notion of random variable, and one that focuses on distributions and probability channels (Markov kernels). While the channel-based picture has been…
Investigating relationships between response variables and covariates in areas such as environmental science, geoscience, and public health is an important endeavor. Based on a Bayesian mixture of finite mixtures model, we present a novel…
When statistical analyses consider multiple data sources, Markov melding provides a method for combining the source-specific Bayesian models. Markov melding joins together submodels that have a common quantity. One challenge is that the…