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Marginal optima are minima or maxima of a function with many nearly flat directions. In settings with many competing optima, marginal ones tend to attract algorithms and physical dynamics. Often, the important family of marginal attractors…
Provided a random realization of the cosmological model, observations of our cosmic neighborhood now allow us to build simulations of the latter down to the non-linear threshold. The resulting local Universe models are thus accurate up to a…
We consider the problem of learning a conditional Gaussian graphical model in the presence of latent variables. Building on recent advances in this field, we suggest a method that decomposes the parameters of a conditional Markov random…
A new family of tree-structured Markov random fields for a vector of discrete counting random variables is introduced. According to the characteristics of the family, the marginal distributions of the Markov random fields are all Poisson…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are simple and extremely powerful techniques to sample from almost arbitrary distributions. The flaw in practice is that it can take a large and/or unknown amount of time to converge to the…
The goal of this work is to formally abstract a Markov process evolving in discrete time over a general state space as a finite-state Markov chain, with the objective of precisely approximating its state probability distribution in time,…
In this work the issue of Bayesian inference for stationary data is addressed. Therefor a parametrization of a statistically suitable subspace of the the shift-ergodic probability measures on a Cartesian product of some finite state space…
We consider Bayesian variable selection for binary outcomes under a probit link with a spike-and-slab prior on the regression coefficients. Motivated by the computational challenges encountered by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers in…
Verification of infinite-state Markov chains is still a challenge despite several fruitful numerical or statistical approaches. For decisive Markov chains, there is a simple numerical algorithm that frames the reachability probability as…
We compare the performance of standard nearest-neighbor propensity score matching with that of an analogous Bayesian propensity score matching procedure. We show that the Bayesian approach makes better use of available information, as it…
Information projections are the key building block of variational inference algorithms and are used to approximate a target probabilistic model by projecting it onto a family of tractable distributions. In general, there is no guarantee on…
This paper considers the problem of remote state estimation for Markov jump linear systems in the presence of uncertainty in the posterior mode probabilities. Such uncertainty may arise when the estimator receives noisy or incomplete…
We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of…
We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…
Conditional distributions, as defined by the Markov category framework, are studied in the setting of matrix algebras (quantum systems). Their construction as linear unital maps are obtained via a categorical Bayesian inversion procedure.…
The core of generalization theory was developed for independent observations. Some PAC and PAC-Bayes bounds are available for data that exhibit a temporal dependence. However, there are constants in these bounds that depend on properties of…
Markov chain analysis is a key technique in formal verification. A practical obstacle is that all probabilities in Markov models need to be known. However, system quantities such as failure rates or packet loss ratios, etc. are often not --…
Computing size and credibility of Bayesian credible regions for certifying the reliability of any point estimator of an unknown parameter (such as a quantum state, channel, phase, \emph{etc.}) relies on rejection sampling from the entire…
Skewness is often present in a wide range of spatial prediction problems, and modeling it in the spatial context remains a challenging problem. In this study a skew-Gaussian random field is considered. The skew-Gaussian random field is…
The problem of learning Markov equivalence classes of Bayesian network structures may be solved by searching for the maximum of a scoring metric in a space of these classes. This paper deals with the definition and analysis of one such…