Related papers: Critical Scaling for the Simple SIS Stochastic Epi…
We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…
We introduce a kinetic framework for modeling the time evolution of the statistical distributions of the population densities in the three compartments of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, under epidemic spreading driven…
In this paper, we focus on the influence of heterogeneity and stochasticity of the population on the dynamical structure of a basic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. First we prove that, upon a suitable mathematical…
When an interval of integers between the lower bound $l_i$ and the upper bound $u_i$ is the support of the marginal distribution $n_i|(n_{i-1}, ...,n_1)$, Chen et al, 2005 noticed that sampling from the interval at each step, for $n_i$…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…
We study a variant of the classical Markovian logistic SIS epidemic model on a complete graph, which has the additional feature that healthy individuals can become infected without contacting an infected member of the population. This…
We consider a standard \textit{susceptible-infected-susceptible} (SIS) model to study behaviors of steady states of epidemic spreading in small-world networks. Using analytical methods and large scale simulations, we recover the usual…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
For a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) infection model in a heterogeneous population, we present simple formulae giving the leading-order asymptotic (large population) behaviour of the mean persistence time, from an endemic state to…
We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…
We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…
We study the statistical properties of the SIR epidemics in heterogeneous networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size s_c. Using percolation theory to calculate the average…
The quasi-deterministic limit of the generic extinction transition is considered within the framework of standard epidemiological models. The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model is known to exhibit a transition from extinction to…
Analytical studies of network epidemiology almost exclusively focus on the extreme situations where the time scales of network dynamics are well separated (longer or shorter) from that of epidemic propagation. In realistic scenarios,…
In the standard SIR model, infected vertices infect their neighbors at rate $\lambda$ independently across each edge. They also recover at rate $\gamma$. In this work we consider the SIR-$\omega$ model where the graph structure itself…
Containment measures implemented by some countries to suppress the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in a slowdown of the epidemic characterized by time series of daily infections plateauing over extended periods of time. We prove that such…
We study epidemic outbreaks on random Delaunay triangulations by applying Asynchronous SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model kinetic Monte Carlo dynamics coupled to lattices extracted from the triangulations. In order to investigate the…
Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…
Some recent works reveal that there are models of differential equations for the mean and variance of infected individuals that reproduce the SIS epidemic model at some point. This stochastic SIS epidemic model can be interpreted as a…