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We study (asymmetric) $U$-statistics based on a stationary sequence of $m$-dependent variables; moreover, we consider constrained $U$-statistics, where the defining multiple sum only includes terms satisfying some restrictions on the gaps…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-10 Svante Janson

We use the Stein-Chen method to obtain compound Poisson approximations for the distribution of the number of subgraphs in a generalised stochastic block model which are isomorphic to some fixed graph. This model generalises the classical…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-05 Matthew Coulson , Robert E. Gaunt , Gesine Reinert

Two-sample inference for the difference of population means typically relies upon a Central Limit Theorem approximation. When data are drawn from a Negative Binomial distribution, previous work of Shilane et al. (2010) showed that a Normal…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-06 David Shilane , Derek Bean

The regular variation model for multivariate extremes decomposes the joint distribution of the extremes in polar coordinates in terms of the angles and the norm of the random vector as the product of two independent densities: the angular…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-08 Fernández-Durán , J. J. , Gregorio-Domínguez , M. M

We obtain explicit $p$-Wasserstein distance error bounds between the distribution of the multi-parameter MLE and the multivariate normal distribution. Our general bounds are given for possibly high-dimensional, independent and identically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-28 Andreas Anastasiou , Robert E. Gaunt

We consider a general preferential attachment model, where the probability that a newly arriving vertex connects to an older vertex is proportional to a sublinear function of the indegree of the older vertex at that time. It is well known…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-04 Carina Betken , Hanna Döring , Marcel Ortgiese

We prove a large deviation principle for the sum of n independent heavy-tailed random variables, which are subject to a moving cut-off boundary at location n. Conditional on the sum being large at scale n, we show that a finite number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-17 Céline Kerriou , Peter Mörters

We develop a theory to measure the variance and covariance of probability distributions defined on the nodes of a graph, which takes into account the distance between nodes. Our approach generalizes the usual (co)variance to the setting of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-08-19 Karel Devriendt , Samuel Martin-Gutierrez , Renaud Lambiotte

We establish central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes in infinite dimension with spatially dependent and non-necessarily local branching mechanisms. This result relies on a fourth moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-31 Bertrand Cloez , Nicolás Zalduendo

We apply the Stein-Chen method to problems from extreme value theory. On the one hand, the Stein-Chen method for Poisson approximation allows us to obtain bounds on the Kolmogorov distance between the law of the maximum of i.i.d. random…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-10 Anne Feidt

Many spatial models exhibit locality structures that effectively reduce their intrinsic dimensionality, enabling efficient approximation and sampling of high-dimensional distributions. However, existing approximation techniques primarily…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-02 Tiangang Cui , Shuigen Liu , Xin T. Tong

The Central Limit Theorem states that, in the limit of a large number of terms, an appropriately scaled sum of independent random variables yields another random variable whose probability distribution tends to a stable distribution. The…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-04-08 Damián H. Zanette , Inés Samengo

The bivariate normal density with unit variance and correlation $\rho$ is well-known. We show that by integrating out $\rho$, the result is a function of the maximum norm. The Bayesian interpretation of this result is that if we put a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-20 Kai Zhang , Lawrence D. Brown , Edward George , Linda Zhao

We study the discrepancy between the distribution of a vector-valued functional of i.i.d. random elements and that of a Gaussian vector. Our main contribution is an explicit bound on the convex distance between the two distributions,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-25 Mikołaj J. Kasprzak , Giovanni Peccati

We consider the distribution of cycle counts in a random regular graph, which is closely linked to the graph's spectral properties. We broaden the asymptotic regime in which the cycle counts are known to be approximately Poisson, and we…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-07-14 Tobias Johnson

This note presents a refined local approximation for the logarithm of the ratio between the negative multinomial probability mass function and a multivariate normal density, both having the same mean-covariance structure. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-04 Christian Genest , Frédéric Ouimet

The theory of dependency graphs is a powerful toolbox to prove asymptotic normality of sums of random variables. In this article, we introduce a more general notion of weighted dependency graphs and give normality criteria in this context.…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-18 Valentin Féray

Recently, many machine learning and statistical models such as non-linear regressions, the Single Index, Multi-index, Varying Coefficient Index Models and Two-layer Neural Networks can be reduced to or be seen as a special case of a new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Di Wang , Xiangyu Guo , Chaowen Guan , Shi Li , Jinhui Xu

We study the distribution of the magnetization of the critical mean-field O(N) model with N > 1. Specifically, we bound the Wasserstein distance between the finite-volume and limiting distributions, in terms of the number of spins. To…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-08 Timothy M. Garoni , Aram Perez , Zongzheng Zhou

Let $M$ be a random matrix in the orthogonal group $\O_n$, distributed according to Haar measure, and let $A$ be a fixed $n\times n$ matrix over $\R$ such that $\tr(AA^t)=n$. Then the total variation distance of the random variable…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-05-18 Elizabeth Meckes