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It's not unreasonable to think that in-game sporting performance can be affected partly by what takes place off the court. We can't observe what happens between games directly. Instead, we proxy for the possibility of athletes partying by…
Clearly-defined rules are often assumed to be straightforward to automate and evaluate. We challenge this assumption through an in-depth study of Major League Baseball's (MLB) seven-year experimentation with the Automated Ball-Strike System…
The maximum ${\log}_q$ likelihood estimation method is a generalization of the known maximum $\log$ likelihood method to overcome the problem for modeling non-identical observations (inliers and outliers). The parameter $q$ is a tuning…
Measuring and quantifying dependencies between random variables (RV's) can give critical insights into a data-set. Typical questions are: `Do underlying relationships exist?', `Are some variables redundant?', and `Is some target variable…
Two-player zero-sum repeated games are well understood. Computing the value of such a game is straightforward. Additionally, if the payoffs are dependent on a random state of the game known to one, both, or neither of the players, the…
Multiple and combined endpoints involving also non-normal outcomes appear in many clinical trials in various areas in medicine. In some cases, the outcome can be observed only on an ordinal or dichotomous scale. Then the success of two…
Traditional statistics forbids use of test data (a.k.a. holdout data) during training. Dwork et al. 2015 pointed out that current practices in machine learning, whereby researchers build upon each other's models, copying hyperparameters and…
In baseball, a scouting report profiles a player's characteristics and traits, usually intended for use in player valuation. This work presents a first-of-its-kind dataset of almost 10,000 scouting reports for minor league, international,…
A variation on Janowski's cubeful equity model is proposed for cube handling in backgammon money games. Instead of approximating the cubeful take point as an interpolation between the dead and live cube limits, a new model is developed…
Bewley and Kohlberg (1976) and Mertens and Neyman (1981) have proved, respectively, the existence of the asymptotic value and the uniform value in zero-sum stochastic games with finite state space and finite action sets. In their work, the…
We study the systole of a random surface, where by a random surface we mean a surface constructed by randomly gluing together an even number of triangles. We study two types of metrics on these surfaces, the first one coming from using…
This paper introduces a novel algorithm for two-player deterministic games with perfect information, which we call PROBS (Predict Results of Beam Search). Unlike existing methods that predominantly rely on Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) for…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
The game-theoretic risk management framework put forth in the precursor work "Towards a Theory of Games with Payoffs that are Probability-Distributions" (arXiv:1506.07368 [q-fin.EC]) is herein extended by algorithmic details on how to…
Evaluating the accuracies of models for match outcome predictions is nice and well but in the end the real proof is in the money to be made by betting. To evaluate the question whether the models developed by us could be used easily to make…
We investigate a class of weighted voting games for which weights are randomly distributed over the standard probability simplex. We provide close-formed formulae for the expectation and density of the distribution of weight of the $k$-th…
We study strategic interaction in data-driven games where players face uncertainty about payoff distributions inferred from finite samples. To model calibrated attitudes toward such uncertainty, we formulate distributionally robust games…
The aim of this paper is to study and develop Bayesian models for the analysis of volleyball match outcomes as recorded by the set-difference. Due to the peculiarity of the outcome variable (set-difference) which takes discrete values from…
Balls-and-bins games have been a wildly successful tool for modeling load balancing problems. In this paper, we study a new scenario, which we call the ball recycling game, defined as follows: Throw m balls into n bins i.i.d. according to a…
Proper scoring rules are commonly applied to quantify the accuracy of distribution forecasts. Given an observation they assign a scalar score to each distribution forecast, with the the lowest expected score attributed to the true…