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Recent theoretical studies have shown that heavy-tails can emerge in stochastic optimization due to `multiplicative noise', even under surprisingly simple settings, such as linear regression with Gaussian data. While these studies have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Mert Gurbuzbalaban , Yuanhan Hu , Umut Simsekli , Kun Yuan , Lingjiong Zhu

Consider standard first-passage percolation on $\mathbb Z^d$. We study the lower-tail large deviations of the rescaled random metric $\widehat{\mathbf T}_n$ restricted to a box. If all exponential moments are finite, we prove that…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-05 Julien Verges

The asymptotics of the probability that the self-intersection local time of a random walk on $\Z^d$ exceeds its expectation by a large amount is a fascinating subject because of its relation to some models from Statistical Mechanics, to…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-16 Wolfgang König

We study the time-dependence of the local persistence probability during a non-stationary time evolution in the disordered contact process in $d=1,2$, and $3$ dimensions. We present a method for calculating the persistence with the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-07-03 Róbert Juhász , István A. Kovács

The process of magnetic reconnection when studied in Nature or when modeled in 3D simulations differs in one key way from the standard 2D paradigmatic cartoon: it is accompanied by much fluctuations in the electromagnetic fields and plasma…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-01-29 G. Lapenta , F. Pucci , M. V. Goldman , D. L. Newman

We prove large deviation principles for $\int_0^t \gamma(X_s)ds$, where $X$ is a $d$-dimensional self-similar Gaussian process and $\gamma(x)$ takes the form of the Dirac delta function $\delta(x)$, $|x|^{-\beta}$ with $\beta\in (0,d)$, or…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-22 Xiaoming Song

We consider three kinds of discrete-time arrival processes: transient, intermediate and recurrent, characterized by a finite, possibly finite and infinite number of events, respectively. In this context, we study renewal processes which are…

We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-04-12 Yufei Zhao

Temporal difference (TD) learning is a foundational algorithm in reinforcement learning (RL). For nearly forty years, TD learning has served as a workhorse for applied RL as well as a building block for more complex and specialized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Hwanwoo Kim , Panos Toulis , Eric Laber

The study of tail behaviour of SGD-induced processes has been attracting a lot of interest, due to offering strong guarantees with respect to individual runs of an algorithm. While many works provide high-probability guarantees, quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Aleksandar Armacki , Dragana Bajović , Dušan Jakovetić , Soummya Kar , Ali H. Sayed

The aim of this paper is to study large deviations for the self-similar solution of a Kac-type kinetic equation. Under the assumption that the initial condition belongs to the domain of normal attraction of a stable law of index $\alpha <2$…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-17 Federico Bassetti , Lucia Ladelli

This paper introduces novel frameworks for large deviations and metastability analysis in heavy-tailed stochastic dynamical systems. We develop and apply these frameworks within the context of stochastic difference equation $X^\eta_{j+1}(x)…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-12 Xingyu Wang , Chang-Han Rhee

A stochastic process, when subject to resetting to its initial condition at a constant rate, generically reaches a non-equilibrium steady state. We study analytically how the steady state is approached in time and find an unusual relaxation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-29 Satya N. Majumdar , Sanjib Sabhapandit , Gregory Schehr

Using martingale methods, we obtain some upper bounds for large and moderate deviations of products of independent and identically distributed elements of GL d (R). We investigate all the possible moment conditions, from super-exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-25 Christophe Cuny , Jérôme Dedecker , Florence Merlevède

We prove a large deviation result for return times of the orbits of a dynamical system in a $r$-neighbourhood of an initial point $x$. Our result may be seen as a differentiable version of the work by Jain and Bansal who considered the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-11-14 Adriana Coutinho , Jerome Rousseau , Benoit Saussol

Alder and Wainwright discovered the slow power decay $\sim t^{-d/2}$ ($d$:dimension) of the velocity autocorrelation function in moderately dense hard sphere fluids using the event-driven molecular dynamics simulations. In the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-05-05 Masaharu Isobe

Adaptive multilevel splitting algorithms have been introduced rather recently for estimating tail distributions in a fast and efficient way. In particular, they can be used for computing the so-called reactive trajectories corresponding to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-12-25 Joran Rolland , Eric Simonnet

The tail measure of a regularly varying stationary time series has been recently introduced. It is used in this contribution to reconsider certain properties of the tail process and establish new ones. A new formulation of the time change…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-01 Hrvoje Planinić , Philippe Soulier

For multivariate distributions in the domain of attraction of a max-stable distribution, the tail copula and the stable tail dependence function are equivalent ways to capture the dependence in the upper tail. The empirical versions of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-09 John H. J. Einmahl , Johan Segers

We extend the study by Ornstein and Weiss on the asymptotic behavior of the normalized version of recurrence times and establish the large deviation property for a certain class of mixing processes. Further, an estimator for entropy based…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-05-21 Siddharth Jain , Rakesh Kumar Bansal