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In this work, we study the problem of learning the volatility under market microstructure noise. Specifically, we consider noisy discrete time observations from a stochastic differential equation and develop a novel computational method to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-19 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

We briefly review statistical models for the probability distribution of money developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. In these models, economic transactions are modeled as random transfers of money between the agents…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-14 Victor M. Yakovenko

Importance sampling is a promising variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulation based derivative pricing. Existing importance sampling methods are based on a parametric choice of the proposal. This article proposes an algorithm…

Applications · Statistics 2009-04-14 Jan C. Neddermeyer

Arguably the most important problem in quantitative finance is to understand the nature of stochastic processes that underlie market dynamics. One aspect of the solution to this problem involves determining characteristics of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-13 Kevin E. Bassler , Joseph L. McCauley , Gemunu H. Gunaratne

Tempered stable distributions are frequently used in financial applications (e.g., for option pricing) in which the tails of stable distributions would be too heavy. Given the non-explicit form of the probability density function,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-08 Till Massing

Fractional processes have gained popularity in financial modeling due to the dependence structure of their increments and the roughness of their sample paths. The non-Markovianity of these processes gives, however, rise to conceptual and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-07 Philipp Harms , David Stefanovits

A computational technique borrowed from the physical sciences is introduced to obtain accurate closed-form approximations for the transition probability of arbitrary diffusion processes. Within the path integral framework the same technique…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-10 Luca Capriotti

We consider the problem of making nonparametric inference in a class of multi-dimensional diffusions in divergence form, from low-frequency data. Statistical analysis in this setting is notoriously challenging due to the intractability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Matteo Giordano , Sven Wang

Scattering moments provide nonparametric models of random processes with stationary increments. They are expected values of random variables computed with a nonexpansive operator, obtained by iteratively applying wavelet transforms and…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Joan Bruna , Stéphane Mallat , Emmanuel Bacry , Jean-François Muzy

In this paper, we consider the robust adaptive non parametric estimation problem for the drift coefficient in diffusion processes. An adaptive model selection procedure, based on the improved weighted least square estimates, is proposed.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Evgeny Pchelintsev , Svyatoslav Perelevskiy , Irina Makarova

We propose a nonparametric estimation for a class of fractional stochastic differential equations (FSDE) with random effects. We precisely consider general linear fractional stochastic differential equations with drift depending on random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-18 M. El Omari , H. El Maroufy , C. Fuchs

The nonparametric estimation of the volatility and the drift coefficient of a scalar diffusion is studied when the process is observed at random time points. The constructed estimator generalizes the spectral method by Gobet, Hoffmann and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-12 Jakub Chorowski , Mathias Trabs

Statistical inference in high dimensional settings has recently attracted enormous attention within the literature. However, most published work focuses on the parametric linear regression problem. This paper considers an important…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 Qi Gao , Randy C. S. Lai , Thomas C. M. Lee , Yao Li

We discuss price variations distributions in foreign exchange markets, characterizing them both in calendar and business time frameworks. The price dynamics is found to be the result of two distinct processes, a multi-variance diffusion and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Michele Pasquini , Maurizio Serva

We give an introduction to discrete functional analysis techniques for stationary and transient diffusion equations. We show how these techniques are used to establish the convergence of various numerical schemes without assuming…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-02-25 Jerome Droniou

We use standard physics techniques to model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-05-29 Marcus G. Daniels , J. Doyne Farmer , Laszlo Gillemot , Giulia Iori , Eric Smith

The study of dependence between random variables is the core of theoretical and applied statistics. Static and dynamic copula models are useful for describing the dependence structure, which is fully encrypted in the copula probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-20 Dominque Guégan , Matteo Iacopini

We present a methodology for obtaining explicit solutions to infinite time horizon optimal stopping problems involving general, one-dimensional, It\^o diffusions, payoff functions that need not be smooth and state-dependent discounting.…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-10 Timothy C. Johnson

We propose a nonparametric algorithm to detect structural breaks in the conditional mean and/or variance of a time series. Our method does not assume any specific parametric form for the dependence structure of the regressor, the time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Archi Roy , Moumanti Podder , Soudeep Deb

We discuss the role of information entropy on the behaviour of random processes, and how this might take effect in the dynamics of financial market prices. We then go on to show how the Open Quantum Systems approach can be used as a more…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-01 Will Hicks