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We consider Bayesian sample size determination using a criterion that utilizes the first two moments of the expected posterior variance. We study the resulting sample size in dependence on the chosen prior and explore the success rate for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-28 Jörg Martin , Clemens Elster

This paper is concerned with the general theme of relating the Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for the invariant measures of stochastic processes to the associated sample path LDP. It is shown that if the sample path deviation function…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-10 Anatolii A. Puhalskii

We consider $p$ independent Brownian motions in $\R^d$. We assume that $p\geq 2$ and $p(d-2)<d$. Let $\ell_t$ denote the intersection measure of the $p$ paths by time $t$, i.e., the random measure on $\R^d$ that assigns to any measurable…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-12 Wolfgang Koenig , Chiranjib Mukherjee

In this paper, we introduce a mathematical apparatus that is relevant for understanding a dynamical system with small random perturbations and coupled with the so-called transmutation process -- where the latter jumps from one mode to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-09-15 Getachew K. Befekadu

We consider the branching process in random environment $\{Z_n\}_{n\geq 0}$, which is a~population growth process where individuals reproduce independently of each other with the reproduction law randomly picked at each generation. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-30 Dariusz Buraczewski , Piotr Dyszewski

We study the large deviation estimates for the short time asymptotic behavior of a strongly degenerate diffusion process. Assuming a nilpotent structure of the Lie algebra generated by the driving vector fields, we obtain a graded large…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Gérard Ben Arous , Jing Wang

In this article we establish a large deviation principle for the empirical measures of a simple spatially inhomogeneous random walk on $\overline{\mathbb{Z}}$, the two-point compactification of $\mathbb{Z}$. The classical Donsker--Varadhan…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Jan-Luka Fatras

We consider a class of tempered subordinators, namely a class of subordinators with one-dimensional marginal tempered distributions which belong to a family studied in [3]. The main contribution in this paper is a non-central moderate…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-05 Nikolai Leonenko , Claudio Macci , Barbara Pacchiarotti

We study the deviation inequality for the spectral norm of structured random matrices with non-gaussian entries. In particular, we establish an optimal bound for the $p$-th moment of the spectral norm by transfering the spectral norm into…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Guozheng Dai , Zhonggen Su

The focus of this article is on the different behavior of large deviations of random subadditive functionals above the mean versus large deviations below the mean in two random media models. We consider the point-to-point first passage…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-24 M. Cranston , D. Gauthier , T. S. Mountford

Assuming that a reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck state process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate all drift and diffusion parameters via the celebrated ergodic theorem. With the sampling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-14 Yaozhong Hu , Yuejuan Xi

Let $p\in[1,\infty]$. Consider the projection of a uniform random vector from a suitably normalized $\ell^p$ ball in $\mathbb{R}^n$ onto an independent random vector from the unit sphere. We show that sequences of such random projections,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-17 Nina Gantert , Steven Soojin Kim , Kavita Ramanan

We calculate the large deviations for the length of the longest alternating subsequence and for the length of the longest increasing subsequence in a uniformly random permutation that avoids a pattern of length three. We treat all six…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Ross G. Pinsky

The theory of large deviations is concerned with the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random systems. These probabilities are important in many fields of study, including statistics, finance, and engineering, as…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-08-20 Hugo Touchette

We consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb{R}$ with a stationary and ergodic environment $\xi=(\xi_n)$ indexed by time $n\in\mathbb{N}$. Let $Z_n$ be the counting measure of particles of generation $n$. For the case where the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-30 Chunmao Huang , Quansheng Liu

We consider matrices formed by a random $N\times N$ matrix drawn from the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (or Gaussian Unitary Ensemble) plus a rank-one perturbation of strength $\theta$, and focus on the largest eigenvalue, $x$, and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-04 Giulio Biroli , Alice Guionnet

Several researchers have proposed minimisation of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) as a method to quantise probability measures, i.e., to approximate a target distribution by a representative point set. We consider sequential algorithms that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-15 Onur Teymur , Jackson Gorham , Marina Riabiz , Chris. J. Oates

We prove a Large Deviation Principle for the random spec- tral measure associated to the pair $(H_N; e)$ where $H_N$ is sampled in the GUE(N) and e is a fixed unit vector (and more generally in the $\beta$- extension of this model). The…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-07 Fabrice Gamboa , Alain Rouault

This paper explores the effects of simulated moments on the performance of inference methods based on moment inequalities. Commonly used confidence sets for parameters are level sets of criterion functions whose boundary points may depend…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-04-12 Hiroaki Kaido , Jiaxuan Li , Marc Rysman

We consider weighted geodesic random walks in a complete Riemannian manifold $(M,g)$. We show that for almost all sequences of weights (with respect to a suitable measure), these weighted geodesic random walks satisfy, when suitably scaled,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Rik Versendaal