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We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian Structural Inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar HMM (uHMM) topologies for inference of process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-04-23 Christopher C. Strelioff , James P. Crutchfield

This paper considers physical systems described by hidden states and indirectly observed through repeated measurements corrupted by unmodeled nuisance parameters. A network-based representation learns to disentangle the coherent information…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-02-08 Pawan Bharadwaj , Matthew Li , Laurent Demanet

To make sense of the world around us, we develop models, constructed to enable us to replicate, describe, and explain the behaviours we see. Focusing on the broad case of sequences of correlated random variables, i.e., classical stochastic…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-04 Paul M. Riechers , Thomas J. Elliott

Inverse problems arise in situations where data is available, but the underlying model is not. It can therefore be necessary to infer the parameters of the latter starting from the former. Statistical mechanics offers a toolbox of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-04 Stefano Bae , Dario Bocchi , Luca Maria Del Bono , Luca Leuzzi

Efficient analysis and simulation of multiscale stochastic systems of chemical kinetics is an ongoing area for research, and is the source of many theoretical and computational challenges. In this paper, we present a significant improvement…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-21 Simon Cotter

Unsupervised machine learning models build an internal representation of their training data without the need for explicit human guidance or feature engineering. This learned representation provides insights into which features of the data…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-01-09 Felix Frohnert , Evert van Nieuwenburg

We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate distortion theory to use causal shielding---a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference:…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-08-23 Susanne Still , James P. Crutchfield , Christopher J. Ellison

Theory and algorithms are developed for detecting changes in the distribution of statistically periodic random processes. The statistical periodicity is modeled using independent and periodically identically distributed processes, a new…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-08-14 Taposh Banerjee , Prudhvi Gurram , Gene Whipps

Experimental measurements of physical systems often have a limited number of independent channels, causing essential dynamical variables to remain unobserved. However, many popular methods for unsupervised inference of latent dynamics from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-23 William Gilpin

Multiple time scale stochastic dynamical systems are ubiquitous in science and engineering, and the reduction of such systems and their models to only their slow components is often essential for scientific computation and further analysis.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-01-22 Carmeline J. Dsilva , Ronen Talmon , C. William Gear , Ronald R. Coifman , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

Scientists often seek simplified representations of complex systems to facilitate prediction and understanding. If the factors comprising a representation allow us to make accurate predictions about our system, but obscuring any subset of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-12 Greg Ver Steeg , Rob Brekelmans , Hrayr Harutyunyan , Aram Galstyan

In various practical situations, we encounter data from stochastic processes which can be efficiently modelled by an appropriate parametric model for subsequent statistical analyses. Unfortunately, the most common estimation and inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Rohan Hore , Abhik Ghosh

Stochastic process discovery is concerned with deriving a model capable of reproducing the stochastic character of observed executions of a given process, stored in a log. This leads to an optimisation problem in which the model's parameter…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Pierre Cry , Paolo Ballarini , András Horváth , Pascale Le Gall

Concise, accurate descriptions of physical systems through their conserved quantities abound in the natural sciences. In data science, however, current research often focuses on regression problems, without routinely incorporating…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-02-05 Tom Bertalan , Felix Dietrich , Igor Mezić , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

We generalize stochastic thermodynamics to include information reservoirs. Such information reservoirs, which can be modeled as a sequence of bits, modify the second law. For example, work extraction from a system in contact with a single…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-11-17 Andre C. Barato , Udo Seifert

We consider iterative (`turbo') algorithms for compressed sensing. First, a unified exposition of the different approaches available in the literature is given, thereby enlightening the general principles and main differences. In particular…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-05-22 Robert F. H. Fischer , Susanne Sparrer

A symbolic analysis of observed time series data requires making a discrete partition of a continuous state space containing observations of the dynamics. A particular kind of partition, called ``generating'', preserves all dynamical…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 Matthew B. Kennel , Michael Buhl

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-01 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

We investigate a stationary process's crypticity---a measure of the difference between its hidden state information and its observed information---using the causal states of computational mechanics. Here, we motivate crypticity and cryptic…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-30 John R. Mahoney , Christopher J. Ellison , Ryan G. James , James P. Crutchfield