Related papers: Maximum Variation of Total Risk
We consider a model of the Riemann zeta function on the critical axis and study its maximum over intervals of length $(\log T)^{\theta}$, where $\theta$ is either fixed or tends to zero at a suitable rate. It is shown that the deterministic…
We combine our version of the resonance method with certain convolution formulas for $\zeta(s)$ and $\log\, \zeta(s)$. This leads to a new $\Omega$ result for $|\zeta(1/2+it)|$: The maximum of $|\zeta(1/2+it)|$ on the interval $1 \le t \le…
In recent work, Fyodorov and Keating conjectured the maximum size of $|\zeta(1/2+it)|$ in a typical interval of length O(1) on the critical line. They did this by modelling the zeta function by the characteristic polynomial of a random…
In this letter, we present an improved hazard rate twisting technique for the estimation of the probability that a sum of independent but not necessarily identically distributed subexponential Random Variables (RVs) exceeds a given…
Let $\xi_1,\xi_2,\ldots$ be independent, identically distributed random variables with infinite mean $\mathbf E[|\xi_1|]=\infty.$ Consider a random walk $S_n=\xi_1+\cdots+\xi_n$, a stopping time $\tau=\min\{n\ge 1: S_n\le 0\}$ and let…
This paper is concerned with the estimation of the volatility process in a stochastic volatility model of the following form: $dX_t=a_tdt+\sigma_tdW_t$, where $X$ denotes the log-price and $\sigma$ is a c\`adl\`ag semi-martingale. In the…
By combining a bound on the absolute value of the difference of mutual information between two joint probablity distributions with a fixed variational distance, and a bound on the probability of a maximal deviation in variational distance…
We obtain the distribution of the maximal average in a sequence of independent identically distributed exponential random variables. Surprisingly enough, it turns out that the inverse distribution admits a simple closed form. An application…
We consider a multidimensional It\^o process $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$ with some unknown drift coefficient process $b_t$ and volatility coefficient $\sigma(X_t,\theta)$ with covariate process $X=(X_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$, the function…
In this paper we propose an optimal predictor of a random variable that has either an infinite mean or an infinite variance. The method consists of transforming the random variable such that the transformed variable has a finite mean and…
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…
This paper derives the maximum variance of a finite dataset of real numbers, given their mean, minimum and maximum. An example is provided in which the maximum variance is less than half of the Bhatia-Davis upper bound, (maximum -…
It is proved that if $T$ is sufficiently large, then uniformly for all positive integers $\ell \leqslant (\log T) / (\log_2 T)$, we have \begin{equation*} \max_{T\leqslant t\leqslant 2T}\left|\zeta^{(\ell)}\Big(1+it\Big)\right| \geqslant…
A recent conjecture of Fyodorov--Hiary--Keating states that the maximum of the absolute value of the Riemann zeta function on a typical bounded interval of the critical line is $\exp\{\log \log T -\frac{3}{4}\log \log \log T+O(1)\}$, for an…
We investigate the second moment of a random sampling $\zeta(1/2+iX_t)$ of the Riemann zeta function on the critical line. Our main result states that if $X_t$ is an increasing random sampling with gamma distribution, then for all…
Let (Z_n)_{n\in\N_0} be a d-dimensional random walk in random scenery, i.e., Z_n=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}Y_{S_k} with (S_k)_{k\in\N_0} a random walk in Z^d and (Y_z)_{z\in Z^d} an i.i.d. scenery, independent of the walk. We assume that the random…
We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the…
We study the excess minimum risk in statistical inference, defined as the difference between the minimum expected loss in estimating a random variable from an observed feature vector and the minimum expected loss in estimating the same…
We present an approximate calculation for the distribution of the maximum of a smooth stationary temporal signal X(t). As an application, we compute the persistence exponent associated to the probability that the process remains below a…
In the present paper, we show that under the Riemann hypothesis, and for fixed $h, \epsilon > 0$, the supremum of the real and the imaginary parts of $\log \zeta (1/2 + it)$ for $t \in [UT -h, UT + h]$ are in the interval $[(1-\epsilon)…