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Markov chains are a common framework for individual-based state and time discrete models in ecology and evolution. Their use, however, is largely limited to systems with a low number of states, since the transition matrices involved pose…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2014-07-10 Katja Reichel , Valentin Bahier , Cédric Midoux , Jean-Pierre Masson , Solenn Stoeckel

We consider a model for a queue in which only a fixed number $N$ of customers can join. Each customer joins the queue independently at an exponentially distributed time. Assuming further that the service times are independent and follow an…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Gianmarco Bet , Jori Selen , Alessandro Zocca

Shannon's classical information theory uses probability theory to analyze channels as mechanisms for information flow. In this paper, we generalize results of Martin, Allwein and Moskowitz for binary channels to show how some more modern…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2012-08-01 Michael Mislove

This paper is devoted to the construction of a new fast-to-evaluate model for the prediction of 2D crack paths in concrete-like microstructures. The model generates piecewise linear cracks paths with segmentation points selected using a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-07 Kathleen Pele , Jean Baccou , Loïc Daridon , Jacques Liandrat , Thibaut Le Gouic , Yann Monerie , Frédéric Péralès

The application of the Markov chain to modeling agricultural succession is well known. In most cases, the main problem is the inference of the model, i.e. the estimation of the transition matrix. In this work we present methods to estimate…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-06 Fabien Campillo , Dominique Hervé , Angelo Raherinirina , Rivo Rakotozafy

For a relatively large class of well-behaved absorbing (or killed) finite Markov chains, we give detailed quantitative estimates regarding the behavior of the chain before it is absorbed (or killed). Typical examples are random walks on…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-13 Persi Diaconis , Kelsey Houston-Edwards , Laurent Saloff-Coste

We introduce weighted Markovian graphs, a random walk model that decouples the transition dynamics of a Markov chain from (random) edge weights representing the cost of traversing each edge. This decoupling allows us to study the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Thao Le , Robbert van der Burg , Bernd Heidergott , Ines Lindner , Alessandro Zocca

We study limit laws for simple random walks on supercritical long range percolation clusters on $\Z^d, d \geq 1$. For the long range percolation model, the probability that two vertices $x, y$ are connected behaves asymptotically as…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-28 Nicholas Crawford , Allan Sly

This work is a numerical experiment of stochastic motion of conservative Hamiltonian system or weakly damped Brownian particles. The objective is to prove the existence of path probability and to compute its values. By observing a large…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-02-09 Lin Tongling , Pujos Cyril , Ou Congjie , Bi Wenping , Calvayrac Florent , Wang Qiuping A

In this paper, we develop a general theory for the estimation of the transition probabilities of reversible Markov chains using the maximum entropy principle. A broad range of physical models can be studied within this approach. We use…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-14 Erik Van der Straeten

We report an exact likelihood computation for Linear Gaussian Markov processes that is more scalable than existing algorithms for complex models and sparsely sampled signals. Better scaling is achieved through elimination of repeated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-21 Stijn de Waele

We consider branching random walks on the Euclidean lattice in dimensions five and higher. In this non-Markovian setting, we first obtain a relationship between the equilibrium measure and Green's function, in the form of an approximate…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-31 Amine Asselah , Bruno Schapira , Perla Sousi

We introduce a natural conjugate prior for the transition matrix of a reversible Markov chain. This allows estimation and testing. The prior arises from random walk with reinforcement in the same way the Dirichlet prior arises from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Persi Diaconis , Silke W. W. Rolles

In networking applications, one often wishes to obtain estimates about the number of objects at different parts of the network (e.g., the number of cars at an intersection of a road network or the number of packets expected to reach a node…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Harshal A. Chaudhari , Michael Mathioudakis , Evimaria Terzi

The standard coalescent is widely used in evolutionary biology and population genetics to model the ancestral history of a sample of molecular sequences as a rooted and ranked binary tree. In this paper, we present a representation of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-16 Mackenzie Simper , Julia A. Palacios

Suppose X and Y are two independent irreducible Markov chains on n states. We consider the intersection time, which is the first time their trajectories intersect. We show for reversible and lazy chains that the total variation mixing time…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-30 Yuval Peres , Thomas Sauerwald , Perla Sousi , Alexandre Stauffer

Let $G$ be a Cayley graph of a nonamenable group with spectral radius $\rho < 1$. It is known that branching random walk on $G$ with offspring distribution $\mu$ is transient, i.e., visits the origin at most finitely often almost surely, if…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-14 Tom Hutchcroft

Let $G$ be a finite group. Let $H, K$ be subgroups of $G$ and $H \backslash G / K$ the double coset space. Let $Q$ be a probability on $G$ which is constant on conjugacy classes ($Q(s^{-1} t s) = Q(t)$). The random walk driven by $Q$ on $G$…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-24 Persi Diaconis , Arun Ram , Mackenzie Simper

We give three different criteria for transience of a Branching Markov Chain. These conditions enable us to give a classification of Branching Random Walks in Random Environment (BRWRE) on Cayley Graphs in recurrence and transience. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-12 Sebastian Müller

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick