Related papers: Fast simulation of new coins from old
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
We count the number and patterns of pairs and tuples of independent events in a simple random experiment: first a fair coin is flipped and then a fair die is tossed. The first number, equal to 888,888, suggest that there are some open…
In the run-up to any major sports tournament, winning probabilities of participants are publicized for engagement and betting purposes. These are generally based on simulating the tournament tens of thousands of times by sampling from…
A key fact in the theory of Boolean functions $f : \{0,1\}^n \to \{0,1\}$ is that they often undergo sharp thresholds. For example: if the function $f : \{0,1\}^n \to \{0,1\}$ is monotone and symmetric under a transitive action with…
Suppose we are given a set of t coins which look identical, but a known number s of them are counterfeit, with a known weight different from the others. Our problem is to locate the counterfeits by weighing subsets of the t coins, with as…
Probabilistic programs are typically normal-looking programs describing posterior probability distributions. They intrinsically code up randomized algorithms and have long been at the heart of modern machine learning and approximate…
Suppose that $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ are independent identically distributed Bernoulli random variables with mean $p$. A Bernoulli factory for a function $f$ takes as input $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ and outputs a random variable that is Bernoulli with mean…
Stochastic simulation algorithms such as likelihood weighting often give fast, accurate approximations to posterior probabilities in probabilistic networks, and are the methods of choice for very large networks. Unfortunately, the special…
We consider the robustness of computational hardness of problems whose input is obtained by applying independent random deletions to worst-case instances. For some classical $NP$-hard problems on graphs, such as Coloring, Vertex-Cover, and…
A positive integer $n$ is practical if every $m \leq n$ can be written as a sum of distinct divisors of $n$. One can generalize the concept of practical numbers by applying an arithmetic function $f$ to each of the divisors of $n$ and…
A number of algorithms have been developed to solve probabilistic inference problems on belief networks. These algorithms can be divided into two main groups: exact techniques which exploit the conditional independence revealed when the…
For a function $f\colon [0,1]\to\mathbb R$, we consider the set $E(f)$ of points at which $f$ cuts the real axis. Given $f\colon [0,1]\to\mathbb R$ and a Cantor set $D\subset [0,1]$ with $\{0,1\}\subset D$, we obtain conditions equivalent…
For sequential betting games, Kelly's theory, aimed at maximization of the logarithmic growth of one's account value, involves optimization of the so-called betting fraction $K$. In this Letter, we extend the classical formulation to allow…
Given a set of coins arranged in a line, we remove heads-up coins one at a time and flip any adjacent coins after each removal. The coin-removal problem is to determine for which arrangements of coins it is possible to remove all of the…
This note illustrates how a variety of causal abstraction arXiv:1707.00819 arXiv:1812.03789, defined here as causal abstractive simulation, can be used to formalize a simple example of language model simulation. This note considers the case…
An algorithm is presented that, taking a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables with parameter $1/2$ as inputs and using only rational arithmetic, simulates a Bernoulli random variable with possibly irrational parameter $\tau$.…
What is the average number of tosses needed before a particular sequence of heads and tails turns up? We solve the problem didactically, starting with doubles, finding that a tail, followed by a head, turns up on the average after only four…
This article is meant to give a lucid and widely accessible, self-contained account of a novel way of performing arithmetic operations on fuzzy intervals. Based on two formulae of generalized inversion (the first in close analogy to the…
Randomness is a central concept to statistics and physics. Here, a statistical analysis shows experimental evidence that tossing coins and finding last digits of prime numbers are identical regarding statistics for equally likely outcomes.…
Alice seeks an information-theoretically secure source of private random data. Unfortunately, she lacks a personal source and must use remote sources controlled by other parties. Alice wants to simulate a coin flip of specified bias…