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We develop a non-parametric Bayesian prior for a family of random probability measures by extending the Polya tree ($PT$) prior to a joint prior for a set of probability measures $G_1,\dots,G_n$, suitable for meta-analysis with event time…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 Giovanni Poli , Elena Fountzilas , Apostolia-Maria Tsimeridou , Peter Müller

In this article, we provide an extension of the Chen-Stein inequality for Poisson approximation in the total variation distance for sums of independent Bernoulli random variables in two ways. We prove that we can improve the rate of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-26 Pierre-Loïc Méliot , Ashkan Nikeghbali , Gabriele Visentin

In this work, recent results on the moments of balanced P\'olya urns are generalized to unbalanced urns, with the condition that the expected change in total activity at each step is constant. We also provide applications of our results to…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Colin Desmarais

In this article we consider likelihood-based estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov (POMV) diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, using the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Raul Tempone

Analogous to Kolmogorov's theorem for the existence of stochastic processes describing random functions, we consider theorems for the existence of stochastic processes describing random measures, as limits of inverse measure systems.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-16 B. J. K. Kleijn

New nonparametric tests of copula exchangeability and radial symmetry are proposed. The novel aspect of the tests is a resampling procedure that exploits group invariance conditions associated with the relevant symmetry hypothesis. They may…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-16 Brendan K. Beare , Juwon Seo

This article describes a purely analytic approach to urn models of the generalized or extended P\'olya-Eggenberger type, in the case of two types of balls and constant ``balance,'' that is, constant row sum. The treatment starts from a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Philippe Flajolet , Joaquim Gabarro , Helmut Pekari

Mixture models have received considerable attention recently and Newton [Sankhy\={a} Ser. A 64 (2002) 306--322] proposed a fast recursive algorithm for estimating a mixing distribution. We prove almost sure consistency of this recursive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-25 Surya T. Tokdar , Ryan Martin , Jayanta K. Ghosh

Iterative load balancing algorithms for indivisible tokens have been studied intensively in the past. Complementing previous worst-case analyses, we study an average-case scenario where the load inputs are drawn from a fixed probability…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2017-03-28 Leran Cai , Thomas Sauerwald

The dynamical likelihood method for analysis of high energy collider events is reformulated. The method is to reconstruct the elementary parton state from observed quantities. The basic assumption is that each of final state partons…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 Kunitaka Kondo

We derive new upper and lower bounds for probabilities that $r$ or at least $r$ from $n$ events occur. These bounds can turn to equalities. The method is discussed as well. It works for measurable space and measures with sign, too. We also…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-12 Andrei N. Frolov

We derive an extended empirical likelihood for parameters defined by estimating equations which generalizes the original empirical likelihood for such parameters to the full parameter space. Under mild conditions, the extended empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-07 Min Tsao , Fan Wu

We study countable graphs that -- up to isomorphism and with probability one -- arise from a random process, in a similar fashion as the Rado graph. Unlike in the classical case, we do not require that probabilities assigned to pairs of…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2026-01-23 Ziemowit Kostana , Jarosław Swaczyna , Agnieszka Widz

A variation of Choquet random sup-measures is introduced. These random sup-measures are shown to arise as the scaling limits of empirical random sup-measures of a general aggregated model. Because of the aggregations, the finite-dimensional…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-18 Yizao Wang

We define a conjugate prior for the reversible Markov chain of order $r$. The prior arises from a partially exchangeable reinforced random walk, in the same way that the Beta distribution arises from the exchangeable Poly\'{a} urn. An…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-16 Sergio Bacallado

We obtain Azuma bounds for the probabilities of being away from the limit for a class of urn models. The method consists of relating the variables to certain linear combinations using eigenvectors of the replacement matrix, thus bringing in…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-01 Amites Dasgupta

Dependent nonparametric processes extend distributions over measures, such as the Dirichlet process and the beta process, to give distributions over collections of measures, typically indexed by values in some covariate space. Such models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 Nicholas J. Foti , Sinead Williamson

Although copulas are used and defined for various infinite-dimensional objects (e.g. Gaussian processes and Markov processes), there is no prevalent notion of a copula that unifies these concepts. We propose a unified approach and define…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-23 Fred Espen Benth , Giulia Di Nunno , Dennis Schroers

Diffusion models are recent state-of-the-art methods for image generation and likelihood estimation. In this work, we generalize continuous-time diffusion models to arbitrary Riemannian manifolds and derive a variational framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-18 Chin-Wei Huang , Milad Aghajohari , Avishek Joey Bose , Prakash Panangaden , Aaron Courville

In this paper, we have developed a new class of sampling schemes for estimating parameters of binomial and Poisson distributions. Without any information of the unknown parameters, our sampling schemes rigorously guarantee prescribed levels…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-10-11 Xinjia Chen