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Large continuous-time Markov chains with exponentially small transition rates arise in modeling complex systems in physics, chemistry and biology. We propose a constructive graph-algorithmic approach to determine the sequence of critical…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-01 Tingyue Gan , Maria Cameron

We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Thom Badings , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Ufuk Topcu , Nils Jansen

Nonlinear Markov Chains (nMC) are regarded as the original (linear) Markov Chains with nonlinear small perturbations. It fits real-world data better, but its associated properties are difficult to describe. A new approach is proposed to…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-13 Kaichen Xu

Kemeny's constant measures the efficiency of a Markov chain in traversing its states. We investigate whether structure-preserving perturbations to the transition probabilities of a reversible Markov chain can improve its connectivity while…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-12-17 Fabio Durastante , Miryam Gnazzo , Beatrice Meini

We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-03-04 Przemysław Daca , Thomas A. Henzinger , Jan Křetínský , Tatjana Petrov

This paper presents a simple algorithm to check whether reachability probabilities in parametric Markov chains are monotonic in (some of) the parameters. The idea is to construct - only using the graph structure of the Markov chain and…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-07-22 Jip Spel , Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen

We study distributions of meeting times for finite symmetric Markov chains. For Markov kernels defined on large state spaces which satisfy certain weak inhomogeneity in return probabilities of points up to large numbers of steps, we obtain…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-20 Yu-Ting Chen

We make a connection between the continuous time and lazy discrete time Markov chains through the comparison of cutoffs and mixing time in total variation distance. For illustration, we consider finite birth and death chains and provide a…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-18 Guan-Yu Chen , Laurent Saloff-Coste

We present a novel method for computing reachability probabilities of parametric discrete-time Markov chains whose transition probabilities are fractions of polynomials over a set of parameters. Our algorithm is based on two key…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2014-03-28 Nils Jansen , Florian Corzilius , Matthias Volk , Ralf Wimmer , Erika Ábrahám , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Bernd Becker

We consider discrete-time Markov bridges, chains whose initial and final states coincide. We derive exact finite-time formulae for the joint probability distributions of additive functionals of trajectories. We apply our theory to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-10-16 Édgar Roldán , Pierpaolo Vivo

For Markov chains with a partially ordered finite state space we show strong stationary duality under the condition of M\"obius monotonicity of the chain. We show relations of M\"obius monotonicity to other definitions of monotone chains.…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-01-04 Pawel Lorek , Ryszard Szekli

We study discrete time linear constrained switching systems with additive disturbances, in which the switching may be on the system matrices, the disturbance sets, the state constraint sets or a combination of the above. In our general…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-02-03 Nikolaos Athanasopoulos , Konstantinos Smpoukis , Raphael M. Jungers

We give a closed form of the discrete-time evolution of a recombination transformation in population genetics. This decomposition allows to define a Markov chain in a natural way. We describe the geometric decay rate to the limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Servet Martinez

We analyze the properties of degree-preserving Markov chains based on elementary edge switchings in undirected and directed graphs. We give exact yet simple formulas for the mobility of a graph (the number of possible moves) in terms of its…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2012-03-12 E. S. Roberts , A. Annibale , A. C. C. Coolen

Continuous-time Markov chains are used to model stochastic systems where transitions can occur at irregular times, e.g., birth-death processes, chemical reaction networks, population dynamics, and gene regulatory networks. We develop a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Majerle Reeves , Harish S. Bhat

We consider a finite state discrete time process X. Without loss of generality the finite state space can be identified with the set of unit vectors {e1, e2, . . . , eN} with ei = (0, . . . , 0, 1, 0, . . . , 0)0 2 RN. For a Markov chain…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-02 Robert J. Elliott

This paper focuses on time-varying delayed stochastic differential systems with stochastically switching parameters formulated by a unified switching behavior combining a discrete adapted process and a Cox process. Unlike prior studies…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Xinyu Wu , Zidong Wang , Wenlian Lu

We review a recent development at the interface between discrete mathematics on one hand and probability theory and statistics on the other, specifically the use of Markov chains and their boundary theory in connection with the asymptotics…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-03 Rudolf Grübel

We study the limiting object of a sequence of Markov chains analogous to the limits of graphs, hypergraphs, and other objects which have been studied. Following a suggestion of Aldous, we assign to a sequence of finite Markov chains with…

Logic · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Henry Towsner

We propose an exact technique to calculate lower bounds of spectral gaps of discrete time reversible Markov chains on finite state sets. Spectral gaps are a common tool for evaluating convergence rates of Markov chains. As an illustration,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 N. Destainville