Related papers: Markov Chain Sampling for Non-linear State Space M…
We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…
This paper introduces a decentralized state-dependent Markov chain synthesis (DSMC) algorithm for finite-state Markov chains. We present a state-dependent consensus protocol that achieves exponential convergence under mild technical…
Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…
Smoothing in state-space models amounts to computing the conditional distribution of the latent state trajectory, given observations, or expectations of functionals of the state trajectory with respect to this distributions. For models that…
We consider the task of learning mappings from sequential data to real-valued responses. We present and evaluate an approach to learning a type of hidden Markov model (HMM) for regression. The learning process involves inferring the…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are general purpose models for time-series data widely used across the sciences because of their flexibility and elegance. However fitting HMMs can often be computationally demanding and time consuming,…
The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to perform such sampling, but this method is known to…
B-spline-based hidden Markov models employ B-splines to specify the emission distributions, offering a more flexible modelling approach to data than conventional parametric HMMs. We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, enabling the…
Particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) allows for Bayesian parameter inference in nonlinear state space models by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particle filtering. The latter is used to estimate the intractable likelihood. In…
Non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHHMM) are a subclass of dependent mixture models used for semi-supervised learning, where both transition probabilities between the latent states and mean parameter of the probability distribution of…
In this paper, we develop methods of nonlinear filtering and prediction of an unobservable Markov chain with a finite set of states. This Markov chain controls coefficients of AR(p) model. Using observations generated by AR(p) model we have…
Pair Hidden Markov Models (PHMMs) are probabilistic models used for pairwise sequence alignment, a quintessential problem in bioinformatics. PHMMs include three types of hidden states: match, insertion and deletion. Most previous studies…
Industrial processes generate a massive amount of monitoring data that can be exploited to uncover hidden time losses in the system. This can be used to enhance the accuracy of maintenance policies and increase the effectiveness of the…
Particle MCMC is a class of algorithms that can be used to analyse state-space models. They use MCMC moves to update the parameters of the models, and particle filters to propose values for the path of the state-space model. Currently the…
We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…
Finite state space hidden Markov models are flexible tools to model phenomena with complex time dependencies: any process distribution can be approximated by a hidden Markov model with enough hidden states.We consider the problem of…
Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…
Monitoring of industrial processes is a critical capability in industry and in government to ensure reliability of production cycles, quick emergency response, and national security. Process monitoring allows users to gauge the progress of…
We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…
The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…