Related papers: Markov Chain Sampling for Non-linear State Space M…

Various Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are studied to improve upon random walk Metropolis sampling, for simulation from complex distributions. Examples include Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and…

Deep learning (DL) methods have outperformed parametric models such as historical average, ARIMA and variants in predicting traffic variables into short and near-short future, that are critical for traffic management. Specifically,…

This paper reveals the intrinsic structure of Matrix Product States (MPS) by establishing their deep connection to entangled hidden Markov models (EHMMs). It is demonstrated that a significant class of MPS can be derived as the outcomes of…

When learning a hidden Markov model (HMM), sequen- tial observations can often be complemented by real-valued summary response variables generated from the path of hid- den states. Such settings arise in numerous domains, includ- ing many…

Given a nonparametric Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with two states, the question of constructing efficient multiple testing procedures is considered, treating one of the states as an unknown null hypothesis. A procedure is introduced, based on…

We propose a class of discrete state sampling algorithms based on Nesterov's accelerated gradient method, which extends the classical Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. The evolution of the discrete states probability distribution governed…

Data collected from wearable devices and smartphones can shed light on an individual's pattern of behavioral and circadian routine. Phone use can be modeled as alternating event process, between the state of active use and the state of…

Hidden Markov models are versatile tools for modeling sequential observations, where it is assumed that a hidden state process selects which of finitely many distributions generates any given observation. Specifically for time series of…

We investigate nonlinear regression for nonstationary sequential data. In most real-life applications such as business domains including finance, retail, energy and economy, timeseries data exhibits nonstationarity due to the temporally…

I introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme in which sampling from a distribution with density pi(x) is done using updates operating on an "ensemble" of states. The current state x is first stochastically mapped to an ensemble,…

Despite the promising performance of state space models (SSMs) in long sequence modeling, limitations still exist. Advanced SSMs like S5 and S6 (Mamba) in addressing non-uniform sampling, their recursive structures impede efficient SSM…

This paper introduces the hhsmm R package, which involves functions for initializing, fitting, and predication of hidden hybrid Markov/semi-Markov models. These models are flexible models with both Markovian and semi-Markovian states, which…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a ubiquitous tool to model time series data, and have been widely used in two main tasks of Automatic Music Transcription (AMT): note segmentation, i.e. identifying the played notes after a multi-pitch…

Herein, the Hidden Markov Model is expanded to allow for Markov chain observations. In particular, the observations are assumed to be a Markov chain whose one step transition probabilities depend upon the hidden Markov chain. An…

This paper introduces a novel model-based clustering approach for clustering time series which present changes in regime. It consists of a mixture of polynomial regressions governed by hidden Markov chains. The underlying hidden process for…

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with…

We propose a copula-based extension of the hidden Markov model (HMM) which applies when the observations recorded at each time in the sample are multivariate. The joint model produced by the copula extension allows decoding of the hidden…

State space models contain time-indexed parameters, termed states, as well as static parameters, simply termed parameters. The problem of inferring both static parameters as well as states simultaneously, based on time-indexed observations,…

In engineering examples, one often encounters the need to sample from unnormalized distributions with complex shapes that may also be implicitly defined through a physical or numerical simulation model, making it computationally expensive…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a versatile statistical framework commonly used in ecology to characterize behavioural patterns from animal movement data. In HMMs, the observed data depend on a finite number of underlying hidden states,…