Related papers: $\epsilon'/\epsilon$: three years later
Because of the high eccentricities (~0.3) of two of the possible planets about the star Upsilon Andromeda, the stability of the system requires careful study. We present results of 1000 numerical simulations which explore the orbital…
Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…
Peak estimation bounds extreme values of a function of state along trajectories of a dynamical system. This paper focuses on extending peak estimation to continuous and discrete settings with time-independent and time-dependent uncertainty.…
Empirical science needs to be based on facts and claims that can be reproduced. This calls for replicating the studies that proclaim the claims, but practice in most fields still fails to implement this idea. When such studies emerged in…
What is the origin of macroscopic randomness (uncertainty)? This is one of the most fundamental open questions for human being. In this paper, 10000 samples of reliable (convergent), multiple-scale (from 1.0E-60 to 100) numerical…
Applying standard statistical methods after model selection may yield inefficient estimators and hypothesis tests that fail to achieve nominal type-I error rates. The main issue is the fact that the post-selection distribution of the data…
Lord's Paradox occurs when a continuous covariate is statistically controlled for and the relationship between a continuous outcome and group status indicator changes in both magnitude and direction. This phenomenon poses a challenge to the…
Suppose $\widehat\theta_n$ is a strongly consistent estimator for $\theta_0$ in some i.i.d. situation. Let $N_\varepsilon$ and $Q_\varepsilon$ be respectively the last $n$ and the total number of $n$ for which $\widehat\theta_n$ is at least…
In this paper, we will see that the proportion of d as leading digit, d $\in$ 1, 9, in data (obtained thanks to the hereunder developed model) is more likely to follow a law whose probability distribution is determined by a specific upper…
Results for higher-order threshold enhancements in high-E_T jet production in hadron-hadron collisions are presented. Expressions are given for the next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) threshold corrections to the single-jet inclusive cross…
For many years, the intuitions underlying partial-order planning were largely taken for granted. Only in the past few years has there been renewed interest in the fundamental principles underlying this paradigm. In this paper, we present a…
How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…
We consider the problem of estimating the number of distinct elements in a large data set (or, equivalently, the support size of the distribution induced by the data set) from a random sample of its elements. The problem occurs in many…
Laplace approximations are commonly used to approximate high-dimensional integrals in statistical applications, but the quality of such approximations as the dimension of the integral grows is not well understood. In this paper, we prove a…
Time series classification is a task that aims at classifying chronological data. It is used in a diverse range of domains such as meteorology, medicine and physics. In the last decade, many algorithms have been built to perform this task…
We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…
Recently Balakrishnan and Iliopoulos [Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 61 (2009)] gave sufficient conditions under which maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is stochastically increasing. In this paper we study test plans which are not considered…
Recently, several researchers have claimed that conclusions obtained from a Bayes factor (or the posterior odds) may contradict those obtained from Bayesian posterior estimation. In this short paper, we wish to point out that no such…
When a series of measurements is performed with increasingly coarse (or increasingly fine) precision, consecutive observations seem to be erratically distributed at first, and then organize themselves into cycles and patterns. The patterns,…
We set up a model for reasoning about metric spaces with belief theoretic measures. The uncertainty in these spaces stems from both probability and metric. To represent both aspect of uncertainty, we choose an expected distance function as…