Related papers: $\epsilon'/\epsilon$: three years later
Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that adversely affects management decisions, and mathematical modelling is an aid to its detailed understanding. Bias in opinion update about the value of a parameter is modelled here assuming that…
Traditionally, Probability theory was dealing with limit theorems where 'limit" means that time tends to infinity. Questions about finite time dynamics (evolution) were always considered as, although important for practical applications,…
Statistical significance measures the reliability of a result obtained from a random experiment. We investigate the number of repetitions needed for a statistical result to have a certain significance. In the first step, we consider…
Recent tentative experimental indications, and the subsequent theoretical speculations, regarding possible violations of Lorentz invariance have attracted a vast amount of attention. An important technical issue that considerably…
Counts in cells are used to analyse the higher order properties of the statistics of the EDSGC survey. The probability distribution is obtained from an equal area projection source catalog with infinite oversampling over the range…
Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical…
The aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure for testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order…
The Cepheids' P-L relation got itself talked about again in the recent past due to claims of observed metallicity dependences of at least its zero point. The divergences of the observational results obtained by the different authors are…
The Rashomon Effect describes the following phenomenon: for a given dataset there may exist many models with equally good performance but with different solution strategies. The Rashomon Effect has implications for Explainable Machine…
We present the results of our recent calculation of $\epsilon^{\prime}/ \epsilon$ at the Next-to-Leading (NLO) order in QCD and QED, in the framework of $\DSone$ Effective Hamiltonians. The operator matrix elements are taken from lattice…
We consider list versions of sparse approximation problems, where unlike the existing results in sparse approximation that consider situations with unique solutions, we are interested in multiple solutions. We introduce these problems and…
Let $(P,\leq)$ be a finite poset (partially ordered set), where $P$ has cardinality $n$. Consider linear extensions of $P$ as permutations $x_1x_2\cdots x_n$ in one-line notation. For distinct elements $x,y\in P$, we define…
We propose a rigorous decomposition of predictive error, highlighting that not all 'irreducible' error is genuinely immutable. Many domains stand to benefit from iterative enhancements in measurement, construct validity, and modeling. Our…
Inspired by the context of compressing encrypted sources, this paper considers the general tradeoff between rate, end-to-end delay, and probability of error for lossless source coding with side-information. The notion of end-to-end delay is…
The points at which the log likelihood falls by 1/2 from its maximum value are often used to give the `errors' on a result, i.e. the 68% central confidence interval. The validity of this is examined for two simple cases: a lifetime…
The physics of high-energy collider experiments asks for delicate comparisons between theoretical predictions and experimental data. Signals and potential backgrounds for new physics have to be predicted at sufficient accuracy. The accuracy…
This review aims to provide a comprehensive update on the progress made on the Sequential Testing problem (STP) in the last 20 years after the review, [1] was published. Many studies have provided new theoretical results, extensions of the…
When searching for a new resonance somewhere in a possible mass range, the significance of observing a local excess of events must take into account the probability of observing such an excess anywhere in the range. This is the so called…
In order to make quantitative predictions for jet cross sections in perturbative QCD, it is essential to calculate them to next-to-leading accuracy. This has traditionally been an extremely laborious process. Using a new formalism,…
When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the…