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We study a model of consensus decision making, in which a finite group of Bayesian agents has to choose between one of two courses of action. Each member of the group has a private and independent signal at his or her disposal, giving some…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-24 Elchanan Mossel , Omer Tamuz

We present a logical framework that enables us to define a formal theory of computational trust in which this notion is analysed in terms of epistemic attitudes towards the possible objects of trust and in relation to existing evidence in…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-19 Francesco A. Genco

In this paper, we introduce the problem of decision-oriented communications, that is, the goal of the source is to send the right amount of information in order for the intended destination to execute a task. More specifically, we restrict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-20 Hang Zou , Chao Zhang , Samson Lasaulce , Lucas Saludjian , Patrick Panciatici

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Angelika Kimmig , Murat Sensoy

This letter studies information-theoretic security without knowing the eavesdropper's channel fading state. We present an alternative secrecy outage formulation to measure the probability that message transmissions fail to achieve perfect…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Xiangyun Zhou , Matthew R. McKay , Behrouz Maham , Are Hjorungnes

Over time, cryptographically deniable systems have come to be associated in computer-science literature with the idea of "denying" evidence in court - specifically, with the ability to convincingly forge evidence in courtroom scenarios and…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Jacob Leiken , Sunoo Park

As interaction between autonomous agents, communication can be analyzed in game-theoretic terms. Meaning game is proposed to formalize the core of intended communication in which the sender sends a message and the receiver attempts to infer…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Koiti Hasida

Agents interacting with an incompletely known world need to be able to reason about the effects of their actions, and to gain further information about that world they need to use sensors of some sort. Unfortunately, both the effects of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Fahiem Bacchus , Joseph Y. Halpern , Hector J. Levesque

The theory of rational choice assumes that when people make decisions they do so in order to maximize their utility. In order to achieve this goal they ought to use all the information available and consider all the choices available to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-04-07 Tshilidzi Marwala

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…

In many real-world scenarios, experts must convey complex information with limited message capacity. This paper explores how the availability of messages influences an expert's persuasive ability. We develop a geometric representation of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-05-09 Yunus C. Aybas , Eray Turkel

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-09 Fotios Petropoulos , Daniele Apiletti , Vassilios Assimakopoulos , Mohamed Zied Babai , Devon K. Barrow , Souhaib Ben Taieb , Christoph Bergmeir , Ricardo J. Bessa , Jakub Bijak , John E. Boylan , Jethro Browell , Claudio Carnevale , Jennifer L. Castle , Pasquale Cirillo , Michael P. Clements , Clara Cordeiro , Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira , Shari De Baets , Alexander Dokumentov , Joanne Ellison , Piotr Fiszeder , Philip Hans Franses , David T. Frazier , Michael Gilliland , M. Sinan Gönül , Paul Goodwin , Luigi Grossi , Yael Grushka-Cockayne , Mariangela Guidolin , Massimo Guidolin , Ulrich Gunter , Xiaojia Guo , Renato Guseo , Nigel Harvey , David F. Hendry , Ross Hollyman , Tim Januschowski , Jooyoung Jeon , Victor Richmond R. Jose , Yanfei Kang , Anne B. Koehler , Stephan Kolassa , Nikolaos Kourentzes , Sonia Leva , Feng Li , Konstantia Litsiou , Spyros Makridakis , Gael M. Martin , Andrew B. Martinez , Sheik Meeran , Theodore Modis , Konstantinos Nikolopoulos , Dilek Önkal , Alessia Paccagnini , Anastasios Panagiotelis , Ioannis Panapakidis , Jose M. Pavía , Manuela Pedio , Diego J. Pedregal , Pierre Pinson , Patrícia Ramos , David E. Rapach , J. James Reade , Bahman Rostami-Tabar , Michał Rubaszek , Georgios Sermpinis , Han Lin Shang , Evangelos Spiliotis , Aris A. Syntetos , Priyanga Dilini Talagala , Thiyanga S. Talagala , Len Tashman , Dimitrios Thomakos , Thordis Thorarinsdottir , Ezio Todini , Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas , Xiaoqian Wang , Robert L. Winkler , Alisa Yusupova , Florian Ziel

The appreciation and utilisation of risk and uncertainty can play a key role in helping to solve some of the many ethical issues that are posed by AI. Understanding the uncertainties can allow algorithms to make better decisions by…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Nicholas Gray

Uncertainty is a pervasive challenge in decision and risk management and it is usually studied by quantification and modeling. Interestingly, engineers and other decision makers usually manage uncertainty with strategies such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Alexander Gutfraind

We propose a method for reasoning about trust in multi-agent systems, specifying a language for describing communication protocols and making trust assumptions and derivations. This is given an interpretation in a modal logic for describing…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Niels Voorneveld , Peeter Laud

Obtaining sound inferences over remote networks via active or passive measurements is difficult. Active measurement campaigns face challenges of load, coverage, and visibility. Passive measurements require a privileged vantage point. Even…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2019-01-30 Robert Beverly , Mark Allman

Humans frequently make decisions with the aid of artificially intelligent (AI) systems. A common pattern is for the AI to recommend an action to the human who retains control over the final decision. Researchers have identified ensuring…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Ziyang Guo , Yifan Wu , Jason Hartline , Jessica Hullman

Items in a test are often used as a basis for making decisions and such tests are therefore required to have good psychometric properties, like unidimensionality. In many cases the sum score is used in combination with a threshold to decide…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Lourens Waldorp , Maarten Marsman , Denny Borsboom

The scenario approach provides a powerful data-driven framework for designing solutions under uncertainty with rigorous probabilistic robustness guarantees. Existing theory, however, primarily addresses assessing robustness with respect to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-02 Simone Garatti , Lucrezia Manieri , Alessandro Falsone , Algo Carè , Marco C. Campi , Maria Prandini

Traditionally, an agent's beliefs would come from what the agent can see, hear, or sense. In the modern world, beliefs are often based on the data available to the agents. In this work, we investigate a dynamic logic of such beliefs that…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Junli Jiang , Pavel Naumov , Wenxuan Zhang