Related papers: Optimality of Universal Bayesian Sequence Predicti…
Consider universal data compression: the length $l(x^n)$ of sequence $x^n\in A^n$ with finite alphabet $A$ and length $n$ satisfies Kraft's inequality over $A^n$, and $-\frac{1}{n}\log \frac{P^n(x^n)}{Q^n(x^n)}$ almost surely converges to…
Assume one observes independent categorical variables or, equivalently, one observes the corresponding multinomial variables. Estimating the distribution of the observed sequence amounts to estimating the expectation of the multinomial…
We revisit the classical problem of universal prediction of stochastic sequences with a finite time horizon $T$ known to the learner. The question we investigate is whether it is possible to derive vanishing regret bounds that hold with…
The predictability of a sequence is defined as the asymptotic performance of the best performing predictor in a given class. The value of the predictability of a sequence will in general depend on the choice of this predictor class. The…
In this paper, we derive optimality results for greedy Bayesian-network search algorithms that perform single-edge modifications at each step and use asymptotically consistent scoring criteria. Our results extend those of Meek (1997) and…
The forward prediction problem for a binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process…
This paper studies sequence prediction based on the monotone Kolmogorov complexity Km=-log m, i.e. based on universal deterministic/one-part MDL. m is extremely close to Solomonoff's universal prior M, the latter being an excellent…
Let $(B_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ be either a Bernoulli random walk or a Brownian motion with drift, and let $M_t:=\max\{B_s: 0\leq s\leq t\}$, $0\leq t\leq T$. This paper solves the general optimal prediction problem \sup_{0\leq\tau\leq…
This paper reviews the growing field of Bayesian prediction. Bayes point and interval prediction are defined and exemplified and situated in statistical prediction more generally. Then, four general approaches to Bayes prediction are…
We address the problem of nonparametric estimation of characteristics for stationary and ergodic time series. We consider finite-alphabet time series and real-valued ones and the following four problems: i) estimation of the (limiting)…
The problem is sequence prediction in the following setting. A sequence $x_1,...,x_n,...$ of discrete-valued observations is generated according to some unknown probabilistic law (measure) $\mu$. After observing each outcome, it is required…
This paper presents a method to calculate the exact average block error probability of some random code ensembles under maximum-likelihood decoding. The proposed method is applicable to various channels and ensembles. The focus is on both…
We show how universal codes can be used for solving some of the most important statistical problems for time series. By definition, a universal code (or a universal lossless data compressor) can compress any sequence generated by a…
This article describes a robust algorithm to estimate a conditional probability density f(t|x) as a non-parametric smooth regression function. It is based on a neural network and the Bayesian interpretation of the network output as a…
We introduce a novel framework for the estimation of the posterior distribution over the weights of a neural network, based on a new probabilistic interpretation of adaptive optimisation algorithms such as AdaGrad and Adam. We demonstrate…
Stochastic optimal control with unknown randomness distributions has been studied for a long time, encompassing robust control, distributionally robust control, and adaptive control. We propose a new episodic Bayesian approach that…
We initiate a systematic study of utilizing predictions to improve over approximation guarantees of classic algorithms, without increasing the running time. We propose a systematic method for a wide class of optimization problems that ask…
The prediction of a binary sequence is a classic example of online machine learning. We like to call it the 'stock prediction problem,' viewing the sequence as the price history of a stock that goes up or down one unit at each time step. In…
For exponentially distributed lifetimes, we consider the prediction of future order statistics based on having observed the first $m$ order statistics. We focus on the previously less explored aspects of predicting: (i) an arbitrary pair of…
The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…