Related papers: Convergence and Error Bounds for Universal Predict…
We study universal consistency of non-i.i.d. processes in the context of online learning. A stochastic process is said to admit universal consistency if there exists a learner that achieves vanishing average loss for any measurable response…
We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define a notion of computable randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…
We study distribution-free predictive inference for data with group symmetries, aiming to establish near-conditional coverage guarantees beyond exchangeability for structured data. While many predictive inference methods achieve a target…
Suppose that we have a method which estimates the conditional probabilities of some unknown stochastic source and we use it to guess which of the outcomes will happen. We want to make a correct guess as often as it is possible. What…
We study the setting in which the bits of an unknown infinite binary sequence x are revealed sequentially to an observer. We show that very limited assumptions about x allow one to make successful predictions about unseen bits of x. First,…
Given a subset of size $k$ of a very large universe a randomized way to find this subset could consist of deleting half of the universe and then searching the remaining part. With a probability of $2^{-k}$ one will succeed. By probability…
In this work, the probability of an event under some joint distribution is bounded by measuring it with the product of the marginals instead (which is typically easier to analyze) together with a measure of the dependence between the two…
We propose a new method to approximate the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs by means of computing guaranteed bounds. The starting point of our work is an interval-based trace semantics for a recursive, higher-order…
We introduce universal neural likelihood inference (UNLI): enabling a single model to provide data-grounded, conditional likelihood predictions for arbitrary targets given any collection of observed features, across diverse domains and…
A sliding window algorithm receives a stream of symbols and has to output at each time instant a certain value which only depends on the last $n$ symbols. If the algorithm is randomized, then at each time instant it produces an incorrect…
By combining the Minkowski inequality and the quantum Chernoff bound, we derive easy-to-compute upper bounds for the error probability affecting the optimal discrimination of Gaussian states. In particular, these bounds are useful when the…
In this note we present an algorithm to obtain a uniform lower bound on Hausdorff dimension of the stationary measure of an affine iterated function scheme with similarities, the best known example of which is Bernoulli convolution. The…
This paper generalizes an important result from the PAC-Bayesian literature for binary classification to the case of ensemble methods for structured outputs. We prove a generic version of the \Cbound, an upper bound over the risk of models…
Convergence analysis of consensus algorithms is revisited in the light of the Hilbert distance. Tsitsiklis Lyapunov function is shown to be the Hilbert distance to consensus in log coordinates. Birkhoff theorem, which proves contraction of…
We study systems of equations of the form X1 = f1(X1, ..., Xn), ..., Xn = fn(X1, ..., Xn), where each fi is a polynomial with nonnegative coefficients that add up to 1. The least nonnegative solution, say mu, of such equation systems is…
Information-theoretic generalization bounds based on the supersample construction are a central tool for algorithm-dependent generalization analysis in the batch i.i.d.~setting. However, existing supersample conditional mutual information…
Consider finite sequences $X_{[1,n]}=X_1\dots X_n$ and $Y_{[1,n]}=Y_1\dots Y_n$ of length $n$, consisting of i.i.d.\ samples of random letters from a finite alphabet, and let $S$ and $T$ be chosen i.i.d.\ randomly from the unit ball in the…
In this paper, we develop a general approach for probabilistic estimation and optimization. An explicit formula and a computational approach are established for controlling the reliability of probabilistic estimation based on a mixed…
Iterative load balancing algorithms for indivisible tokens have been studied intensively in the past. Complementing previous worst-case analyses, we study an average-case scenario where the load inputs are drawn from a fixed probability…
We consider symmetric hypothesis testing in quantum statistics, where the hypotheses are density operators on a finite-dimensional complex Hilbert space, representing states of a finite quantum system. We prove a lower bound on the…