Related papers: Explaining the Forward Interest Rate Term Structur…

In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of our previous investigation of the U.S. Forward Rate Curve. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root…

This paper contains a phenomenological description of the whole U.S. forward rate curve (FRC), based on an data in the period 1990-1996. We find that the average FRC (measured from the spot rate) grows as the square-root of the maturity,…

The phenomenology of the forward rate curve (FRC) can be accurately understood by the fluctuations of a stiff elastic string (Le Coz and Bouchaud, 2024). By relating the exogenous shocks driving such fluctuations to the surprises in the…

We propose a formulation of the term structure of interest rates in which the forward curve is seen as the deformation of a string. We derive the general condition that the partial differential equations governing the motion of such string…

Twenty five years ago, several authors proposed to describe the forward interest rate curve (FRC) as an elastic string along which idiosyncratic shocks propagate, accounting for the peculiar structure of the return correlation across…

This paper offers a new class of models of the term structure of interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, constrained in such a way as to keep the forward rate curve continuous.…

The simplest field theory description of the multivariate statistics of forward rate variations over time and maturities, involves a quadratic action containing a gradient squared rigidity term. However, this choice leads to a spurious kink…

We consider a generalization of the Heath Jarrow Morton model for the term structure of interest rates where the forward rate is driven by Paretian fluctuations. We derive a generalization of It\^{o}'s lemma for the calculation of a…

The Convolution and Master equations governing the time behavior of the term structure of Interest Rates are set up both for continuous variables and for their discretised forms. The notion of Seed is introduced. The discretised theoretical…

In this paper, we study term structure movements in the spirit of Heath, Jarrow, and Morton [Econometrica 60(1), 77-105] under volatility uncertainty. We model the instantaneous forward rate as a diffusion process driven by a G-Brownian…

The purpose of this paper is to study the generalized Fong--Vasicek two-factor interest rate model with stochastic volatility. In this model the dispersion of the stochastic short rate (square of volatility) is assumed to be stochastic as…

A new test of a wide class of interest rate models is proposed and applied to a recently developed quantum field theoretic model and the industry standard Heath-Jarrow-Morton model. This test is independent of the volatility function unlike…

In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability…

We consider a market with a term structure of credit risky bonds in the single-name case. We aim at minimal assumptions extending existing results in this direction: first, the random field of forward rates is driven by a general…

The Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is becoming the main Risk-Free Rate benchmark in US dollars, thus interest rate term structure models need to be updated to reflect the key features exhibited by the dynamics of SOFR and the forward…

In this paper we introduce a flexible HJM-type framework that allows for consistent modelling of intraday, spot, futures, and option prices. This framework is based on stochastic processes with economic interpretations and consistent with…

Explicitly taking into account the risk incurred when borrowing at a shorter tenor versus lending at a longer tenor ("roll-over risk"), we construct a stochastic model framework for the term structure of interest rates in which a frequency…

This paper advances interest rate modeling in the post-LIBOR era by introducing rough stochastic volatility into the Forward Market Model (FMM). We establish a rigorous asymptotic expansion of swaption implied volatility, connecting the FMM…

We describe a model for evolving commodity forward prices that incorporates three important dynamics which appear in many commodity markets: mean reversion in spot prices and the resulting Samuelson effect on volatility term structure,…

It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates.…