Related papers: The Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve wi…

We propose a formulation of the term structure of interest rates in which the forward curve is seen as the deformation of a string. We derive the general condition that the partial differential equations governing the motion of such string…

In this survey paper we discuss recent advances on short interest rate models which can be formulated in terms of a stochastic differential equation for the instantaneous interest rate (also called short rate) or a system of such equations…

In this work, we consider the issue of pricing exchange options and spread options with stochastic interest rates. We provide the closed form solution for the exchange option price when interest rate is stochastic. Our result holds when…

Twenty five years ago, several authors proposed to describe the forward interest rate curve (FRC) as an elastic string along which idiosyncratic shocks propagate, accounting for the peculiar structure of the return correlation across…

We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of…

The phenomenology of the forward rate curve (FRC) can be accurately understood by the fluctuations of a stiff elastic string (Le Coz and Bouchaud, 2024). By relating the exogenous shocks driving such fluctuations to the surprises in the…

Explicitly taking into account the risk incurred when borrowing at a shorter tenor versus lending at a longer tenor ("roll-over risk"), we construct a stochastic model framework for the term structure of interest rates in which a frequency…

This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily…

We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) term structure. We find that the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a…

The notion of a credit spread curve is fundamental in fixed income investing, but in practice it is not `given' and needs to be constructed from bond prices either for a particular issuer, or for a sector rating-by-rating. Rather than…

One of the risks derived from selling long term policies that any insurance company has, arises from interest rates. In this paper we consider a general class of stochastic volatility models written in forward variance form. We also deal…

The paper uses functional auto-regression to predict the dynamics of interest rate curve. It estimates the auto-regressive operator by extending methods of the reduced-rank auto-regression to the functional data. Such an estimation…

In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of our previous investigation of the U.S. Forward Rate Curve. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root…

It is known that the implied volatility skew of FX options demonstrates a stochastic behavior which is called stochastic skew. In this paper we create stochastic skew by assuming the spot/instantaneous variance correlation to be stochastic.…

The idea of forward rates stems from interest rate theory. It has natural connotations to transition rates in multi-state models. The generalization from the forward mortality rate in a survival model to multi-state models is non-trivial…

In 'A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options', Heston proposes a Stochastic Volatility (SV) model with constant interest rate and derives a semi-explicit valuation formula.…

This paper contains a phenomenological description of the whole U.S. forward rate curve (FRC), based on an data in the period 1990-1996. We find that the average FRC (measured from the spot rate) grows as the square-root of the maturity,…

We consider a generalization of the Heath Jarrow Morton model for the term structure of interest rates where the forward rate is driven by Paretian fluctuations. We derive a generalization of It\^{o}'s lemma for the calculation of a…

With the reform of interest rate benchmarks, interbank offered rates (IBORs) like LIBOR have been replaced by risk-free rates (RFRs), such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Euro Short-Term Rate (\euro STR)…

We consider the problem of modelling the term structure of defaultable bonds, under minimal assumptions on the default time. In particular, we do not assume the existence of a default intensity and we therefore allow for the possibility of…