Dynamics of Interest Rate Curve by Functional Auto-Regression
Statistics Theory
2007-06-13 v1 Statistics Theory
Abstract
The paper uses functional auto-regression to predict the dynamics of interest rate curve. It estimates the auto-regressive operator by extending methods of the reduced-rank auto-regression to the functional data. Such an estimation technique is better suited for prediction purposes as opposed to the methods based either on principal components or canonical correlations. The consistency of the estimator is proved using methods of operator theory. The estimation method is used to analyze dynamics of Eurodollar futures rates. The results suggest that future movements of interest rates are predictable at 1-year horizons.
Cite
@article{arxiv.math/0411047,
title = {Dynamics of Interest Rate Curve by Functional Auto-Regression},
author = {Vladislav Kargin and Alexei Onatski},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:math/0411047},
year = {2007}
}
Comments
22 pages