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Energy systems modeling frequently relies on time series data, whether observed or forecast. This is particularly the case, for example, in capacity planning models that use hourly production and load data forecast to occur over the coming…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-13 Kelly Wang , Steven O. Kimbrough

It is our intention to provide via fractional calculus a generalization of the pure and compound Poisson processes, which are known to play a fundamental role in renewal theory, without and with reward, respectively. We first recall the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Francesco Mainardi , Rudolf Gorenflo , Enrico Scalas

We observe non-monotonic aging and memory effects, two hallmarks of glassy dynamics, in two disordered mechanical systems: crumpled thin sheets and elastic foams. Under fixed compression, both systems exhibit monotonic non-exponential…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2017-04-14 Yoav Lahini , Omer Gottesman , Ariel Amir , Shmuel M. Rubinstein

The scaling properties of the roughness of surfaces grown by two different processes randomly alternating in time, are addressed. The duration of each application of the two primary processes is assumed to be independently drawn from given…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Subhadip Raychaudhuri , Yonathan Shapir

Multitime correlation functions provide useful probes for the ensembles of trajectories underlying the stochastic dynamics of complex systems. These can be obtained by measuring their optical response to sequences of ultrashort optical…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-13 Frantisek Sanda , Shaul Mukamel

The state of a stochastic process evolving over a time $t$ is typically assumed to lie on a normal distribution whose width scales like $t^{1/2}$. However, processes where the probability distribution is not normal and the scaling exponent…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-24 Lijian Chen , Kevin E. Bassler , Joseph L. McCauley , Gemunu H. Gunaratne

We consider renewal stochastic processes generated by non-independent events from the perspective that their basic distribution and associated generating functions obey the statistical-mechanical structure of systems with interacting…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-27 Jorge Velázquez , Alberto Robledo

This paper is devoted to the problem of statistical mechanics raised by the analysis of an issue of sociological interest: the teen birth phenomenon. It is expected that these data are characterized by correlated fluctuations, reflecting…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 M. Ignaccolo , P. Allegrini , P. Grigolini , P. Hamilton , B. J. West

For renewal-reward processes with a power-law decaying waiting time distribution, anomalously large probabilities are assigned to atypical values of the asymptotic processes. Previous works have reveals that this anomalous scaling causes a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-05 Hiroshi Horii , Raphael Lefevere , Masato Itami , Takahiro Nemoto

Anomalous diffusion phenomena occur on length scales spanning from intracellular to astrophysical ranges. A specific form of decay at large argument of the probability density function of rescaled displacement (scaling function) is derived…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-05-23 Attilio L. Stella , Aleksei Chechkin , Gianluca Teza

Traditionally, population models distinguish individuals on the basis of their current state. Given a distribution, a discrete time model then specifies (precisely in deterministic models, probabilistically in stochastic models) the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-09-21 B. Boldin , O. Diekmann , J. A. J. Metz

At the physiological level, aging is neither rigid nor unchangeable. Instead, the molecular and mechanisms driving aging are sufficiently plastic that a variety of diverse interventions--dietary, pharmaceutical, and genetic--have been…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-08-28 Nicholas Stroustrup

The compound Poisson process and the Dirichlet process are the pillar structures of Renewal theory and Bayesian nonparametric theory, respectively. Both processes have many useful extensions to fulfill the practitioners needs to model the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-17 Arrigo Coen , Beatriz Godínez-Chaparro

A generalised form of time-translation-invariance permits to re-derive the known generic phenomenology of ageing, which arises in classical many-body systems after a quench from an initially disordered system to a temperature $T\leq T_c$,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-05-30 Malte Henkel

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-16 Shenghao Wu , Wenbin Zhou , Minshuo Chen , Shixiang Zhu

This paper introduces a discrete-time fractional Poisson process defined as a renewal process, where the waiting times follow a discrete Mittag-Leffler distribution. We investigate its fundamental properties by explicitly deriving the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Naohiro Yoshida

Most data processing techniques, applied to biomedical and sociological time series, are only valid for random fluctuations that are stationary in time. Unfortunately, these data are often non stationary and the use of techniques of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 M. Ignaccolo , P. Allegrini , P. Grigolini , P. Hamilton , B. J. West

The accurate estimation of scaling exponents is central in the observational study of scale-invariant phenomena. Natural systems unavoidably provide observations over restricted intervals; consequently a stationary stochastic process (time…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-03-17 K. H. Kiyani , S. C. Chapman , N. W. Watkins

Aging refers to the property of two-time correlation functions to decay very slowly on (at least) two time scales. This phenomenon has gained recent attention due to experimental observations of the history dependent relaxation behavior in…

Popular Physics · Physics 2008-02-03 Stefan Boettcher

Sudden turn-on of a matter-wave source leads to characteristic oscillations of the probability density which are the hallmark feature of diffraction in time. The apodization of matter waves relies on the use of smooth aperture functions…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2010-12-10 A. del Campo , J. G. Muga , M. Moshinsky